Nexus Synergy Engagement Package — B03 · Sea-Fisheries Protection Authority (SFPA) + Naval Service Fishery Monitoring Centre (co-buyer)
Nexus Synergy Engagement Package — B03 · Sea-Fisheries Protection Authority (SFPA) + Naval Service Fishery Monitoring Centre (co-buyer)
STATUS HONESTY. Nexus Synergy Ltd is pre-incorporation, pre-revenue, pre-pilot. The SFPA is a TARGET, not a customer; nothing here is a deployment, a contract, or traction. The ~178-surface UI gallery is a gallery, not a live enforcement system. No one at the SFPA or the Naval Service has been contacted on the company's behalf. ANTI-COOKIE-CUTTER. This package shows the two screens this buyer actually uses — a Fisheries-Control Recognised Maritime Picture (
globe_rmp) and an enforcement-provenanceledger. The §8 ASCII is machine-generated from_build/archetypes/gen_sfpa-fisheries.py, filled with SFPA's real entities (Killybegs, Castletownbere, CLS THEMIS VMS, ERS/landing-weight deltas). EVERY PROBABILITY IS[PRIOR]— a subjective pre-pilot estimate for prioritisation, not a forecast. Re-score after the first real conversation.
§0 — Header & one-line thesis
Nexus Synergy for the SFPA: a sovereign Fisheries-Control Common Operating Picture that fuses the feeds the State already pays for (CLS VMS, AIS, ERS e-logbook, Copernicus SAR, port landing-weights) into one risk-triaged, human-gated, tamper-evident enforcement loop — so the handful of Naval inspection days left each year land on the highest-risk foreign factory vessels, and every decision survives an ombudsman and an EU audit.
We do not replace the VMS transponders or the THEMIS tracker; we sit above them as the fusion-triage-and-write-back layer no incumbent owns.
§1 — Entity snapshot (cited)
The Sea-Fisheries Protection Authority (SFPA) is Ireland's independent statutory regulator for sea-fisheries and seafood production, established under the Sea-Fisheries and Maritime Jurisdiction Act 2006. It promotes, verifies and enforces compliance with the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), sea-fisheries law and seafood food-safety law. [verified — sfpa.ie/What-We-Do]
- Mandate / scope: all fishing vessels operating within Ireland's 200-mile EEZ; 2,000+ Irish-registered vessels wherever they operate; all seafood from Irish processors. [verified — sfpa.ie]
- Structure: a three-member Authority + executive; a network of regional port offices at the main fishery harbours — Killybegs, Castletownbere, Howth, Ros an Mhíl. [verified — sfpa.ie]
- Reporting line: under the aegis of the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (Minister of State for the Marine, Timmy Dooley as of early 2026). [verified — Oireachtas press release, 2026-03-02]
- Operational interdependence: the SFPA is Ireland's competent authority for sea-fisheries control — it owns the enforcement tasking and procured the CLS THEMIS / VMS system. It does land-based / port control and analytics; at-sea enforcement depends on the Naval Service, which operates the Fisheries Monitoring Centre (FMC) under a Service Level Agreement with the SFPA, running the CLS THEMIS / VMS monitoring picture and providing the at-sea patrol assets. The two are structurally inseparable — which is why our wedge pairs them. [verified — sfpa.ie; military.ie; CLS]
This is a decision-intelligence + surveillance-fusion + write-back-to-enforcement buyer — squarely the closed-action-loop thesis, not a pure analytics buyer.
§2 — The pain (web-verified, dated, cited)
A live, parliamentary-hot enforcement-and-data crisis, well documented 2024-2026:
- Foreign factory vessels are effectively uninspected at sea. Naval Service at-sea inspections fell ~5×, from 1,131 (2021) to 204 (2025); the committee heard there had been no at-sea inspection of pelagic factory vessels so far in 2026 (four in 2025). The Chair called it "a huge gap and a huge risk." [verified — The Fishing Daily — Committee Hears Foreign Vessels Largely Uninspected; Afloat — Factory Ships Off Ireland Face Little Inspection]
- A formal political mandate to fix it — now. On 2026-05-26 the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Fisheries and Maritime Affairs published its Report on Sea-Fisheries Protection with 14 recommendations, including enforcement applied to non-Irish vessels in the EEZ, better regulator-industry consultation, a comprehensive review of sea-fisheries legislation, and a new SFPA ombudsman. [verified — RTÉ, 2026-05-26; Oireachtas, 2026-05-26]
- A documented history of EU control failure. A 2018 EU audit of Killybegs pelagic controls found "severe" weaknesses and manipulation of weighing systems; Ireland was judged to have failed to implement its control plan under Reg. (EC) 1224/2009, with under-reporting estimated at ~8,450 t (~13% of the 2018 quota); the control plan was subsequently withdrawn. This is reputational scar tissue the SFPA is under pressure to bury with auditable, tamper-evident control. [verified — Irish Times — EU audit reveals manipulation of catch weights]
- A new EU control regime forcing modernisation now. The amended EU Fisheries Control Regulation, via Commission Delegated Reg. (EU) 2025/1766 and Commission Implementing Reg. (EU) 2025/2196 (under amended Control Reg. (EU) 2023/2842), entered into force 10 January 2026 — tightening vessel monitoring, prior-notification, e-logbook (ERS), vessel/gear identification and electronic transport-document reporting; the SFPA has issued its own guidance on the new rules. [verified — SFPA guidance; The Fishing Daily — Comprehensive Overhaul]
- REM (Remote Electronic Monitoring) becomes mandatory across EU waters, phased 2027-2028. EFCA's March-2025 REM Technical Guidelines define the framework (onboard cameras/sensors/GPS + per-vessel Vessel Monitoring Plans) and explicitly flag AI / machine learning for automated catch identification and gear-usage monitoring. The SFPA publicly welcomed the guidelines; an earlier voluntary CCTV trial failed (no fleet uptake), so the SFPA is now pressing ahead under the mandatory framework. [verified — The Fishing Daily — SFPA Welcomes 2025 EFCA REM Guidelines; The Fishing Daily — Irish vessels say no to CCTV but SFPA to press ahead]
Net: a regulator with a public, parliamentary mandate, a regulatory deadline cluster (2026 control rules / 2027-2028 REM), a history of audit failure, and a structural inability to inspect what matters most (foreign factory vessels at sea). That is a fusion / triage / prioritisation problem, not a hull problem — and prioritisation under scarcity is exactly what our action loop does.
§3 — Use case & value (DECLINE-SAFE framing)
Core offer: a sovereign Fisheries-Control Common Operating Picture + IUU risk-triage + an auditable, human-gated enforcement loop.
- Fuse the feeds SFPA/Naval already pay for into one ontology-backed picture: VMS (CLS TRITON/THEMIS), terrestrial + satellite AIS, LRIT, Copernicus Maritime Surveillance VDS + Sentinel-1 SAR vessel detections, e-logbook/ERS, and port-landing + weighing records. EFCA/EMSA already correlate exactly these feeds at EU level; we provide the national, sovereign, tenant-controlled equivalent over a customer-editable ontology. [verified — EFCA — New technologies for maritime surveillance]
- IUU risk-triage, not "predictive policing of people." We score vessels and behaviours — AIS/VMS gaps and dark activity, SAR-detected non-reporting contacts in a sensitive area, VMS / ERS / landing-weight discrepancies, transhipment patterns — to prioritise the scarce Naval inspection days onto the highest-risk targets. This is the "Automated Behaviour Monitoring" pattern EFCA endorses.
- Closed action loop with auditable write-back: detect → enrich (vessel history, ownership chain, prior infringements) → triage → human-gated sign-off → task a Naval boarding / port inspection / catch re-weigh → record outcome → close. Every step lands in a provenance ledger — a direct, structural answer to the 2018 weighing-manipulation scar and the new ombudsman/oversight demand.
- REM-ready ingest lane: as the 2027-2028 REM camera/sensor feeds arrive, they become one more LayerPlugin in the same ontology; AI catch-ID stays a human-confirmed recommendation, never autonomous action.
- Sovereignty as the differentiator: Irish-built, EU-data-resident, a classification-aware AI Provider Router that refuses out-of-jurisdiction model calls — the right posture for national enforcement data and for pairing with the Naval Service / MAHI.
DECLINE-SAFE — explicitly clear of the published Declined List. We monitor vessels, gear and catch records, not people. The package contains no predictive policing of individuals, no real-time biometric identification of crew, no emotion recognition, no social scoring, no untargeted scraping, no psychometric profiling. Crew-identity resolution is out of scope and would require a separate legal authority; AI catch-ID is advisory only. Frame everything as vessel-behaviour risk-scoring to allocate finite enforcement capacity — fully defensible before an Oireachtas committee and the proposed ombudsman.
Value band: high. Entry is a Tier-1/Tier-2 paid pilot (EUR 120-300k) — a single fusion picture for one fishery / one region — expanding toward a Tier-3-class national platform (EUR 2.4-4.8m/yr) if it pairs with the Naval Service + MAHI.
§4 — Ontology (this buyer's domain)
Entities.
Vessel— per CFR (Community Fleet Register) ID / MMSI / IMO, with flag-state, gear-type, owner-chain, length-overall (LOA), licence + quota holdings, prior-infringement history.VMS-Position— CLS THEMIS ping: LatLon + COG + SOG + receive-station + gap-duration.AIS-Contact— terrestrial + Sat-AIS ping with self-report/observed delta + spoof-suspicion score.SAR-Detection— Copernicus / Sentinel-1 IW scene: centroid, backscatter, estimated LOA, t.ERS-LogbookEntry— e-logbook declared catch by species + ICES area + estimated weight.LandingRecord— port landing + weighing-record (declared vs weighed), per harbour (Killybegs…).RiskFinding— a fused vessel-behaviour score with its contributing evidence and ObservationLevel.EnforcementAction— a gated tasking (board / re-weigh / monitor) with its dual-control signatures.Infringement— a lodged serious / minor infringement under Reg. (EU) 2023/2842, BDA-confirmed.
Relationships.
Vessel —reports→ {VMS-Position, AIS-Contact, ERS-LogbookEntry}; AIS/VMS-Position —contradicted_by→ SAR-Detection; ERS-LogbookEntry —reconciled_against→ LandingRecord (the weight-delta edge); Vessel —scored_as→ RiskFinding; RiskFinding —gated_into→ EnforcementAction; EnforcementAction —confirms→ Infringement (only after BDA raises observation level to confirmed).
The load-bearing fusion edge is ERS-LogbookEntry —reconciled_against→ LandingRecord — the +55 t delta in the worked example is the 2018 Killybegs pattern made machine-detectable and auditable.
§5 — Data model (synergy.*, RLS + load-bearing CHECK)
Tables are org_id-scoped for the app.current_org_id RLS predicate. The load-bearing safety property: no enforcement tasking may be written without a recorded two-person human gate, and no serious infringement may be lodged until the BDA raises the observation level to confirmed — both enforced as DB CHECK invariants, not application courtesy.
SQL61 lines-- IUU vessel-risk finding: fused VMS/AIS/SAR/ERS/landing evidence, org-scoped + RLS. CREATE TABLE synergy.iuu_risk_finding ( id uuid PRIMARY KEY DEFAULT gen_random_uuid(), org_id uuid NOT NULL, -- RLS: app.current_org_id cfr_id text NOT NULL, -- Community Fleet Register id vessel_name text NOT NULL, -- 'NORD-STJERNE' flag_state text, -- foreign / pelagic factory ices_area text, -- '6.a' vms_gap_minutes integer NOT NULL DEFAULT 0, -- 182 (3h02m) ers_declared_t numeric(9,2), -- 357.00 (e-logbook) landing_weight_t numeric(9,2), -- 412.00 (weighed at Killybegs) weight_delta_pct numeric(6,3) GENERATED ALWAYS AS (CASE WHEN ers_declared_t > 0 THEN (landing_weight_t - ers_declared_t) / ers_declared_t * 100 ELSE NULL END) STORED, sar_confirmed boolean NOT NULL DEFAULT false, -- Sentinel-1 hull-fix present iuu_risk numeric(4,3) NOT NULL, -- 0.880 obs_level text NOT NULL DEFAULT 'inferred' CHECK (obs_level IN ('asserted','reported','inferred','direct','confirmed')), prov_o jsonb NOT NULL, -- W3C PROV-O attribution chain created_at timestamptz NOT NULL DEFAULT now() ); ALTER TABLE synergy.iuu_risk_finding ENABLE ROW LEVEL SECURITY; CREATE POLICY org_isolation ON synergy.iuu_risk_finding USING (org_id = current_setting('app.current_org_id')::uuid); -- Gated enforcement tasking (board / re-weigh / monitor). Human gate is structural. CREATE TABLE synergy.enforcement_action ( id uuid PRIMARY KEY DEFAULT gen_random_uuid(), org_id uuid NOT NULL, finding_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES synergy.iuu_risk_finding(id), action_type text NOT NULL CHECK (action_type IN ('monitor','tip_and_cue','port_inspection','board','re_weigh')), gate_sig_naval_mio text, -- QES of Naval MIO; NULL until signed gate_sig_sfpa_off text, -- QES of SFPA Sea-Fisheries Officer tasked_at timestamptz, -- NULL until both signatures present prov_o jsonb NOT NULL, -- LOAD-BEARING INVARIANT: a board/re-weigh/inspection tasking may only be written -- once BOTH human signatures are present (two-person dual control). 'monitor' is -- the only no-task disposition that may exist un-gated. CHECK ( action_type = 'monitor' OR (gate_sig_naval_mio IS NOT NULL AND gate_sig_sfpa_off IS NOT NULL AND tasked_at IS NOT NULL) ) ); ALTER TABLE synergy.enforcement_action ENABLE ROW LEVEL SECURITY; CREATE POLICY org_isolation ON synergy.enforcement_action USING (org_id = current_setting('app.current_org_id')::uuid); -- Serious / minor infringement lodgement, staged behind a BDA-confirmed observation level. CREATE TABLE synergy.infringement_lodgement ( id uuid PRIMARY KEY DEFAULT gen_random_uuid(), org_id uuid NOT NULL, finding_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES synergy.iuu_risk_finding(id), action_id uuid NOT NULL REFERENCES synergy.enforcement_action(id), legal_basis text NOT NULL, -- 'Reg. (EU) 2023/2842 Art. ...' obs_level_at_lodge text NOT NULL, -- must be 'confirmed' lodged_at timestamptz, -- NULL until BDA confirms prov_o jsonb NOT NULL, -- LOAD-BEARING INVARIANT: lodge a serious infringement only on a BDA-confirmed finding. CHECK (lodged_at IS NULL OR obs_level_at_lodge = 'confirmed') );
The enforcement_action CHECK is the constitutional heart of the package: the database physically cannot record a boarding or a re-weigh order that a single person signed. That is what an ombudsman and an EU auditor want to see.
§6 — Action-loop pseudocode (detect → … → close)
Python54 linesdef fisheries_control_loop(eez="IE-EEZ", window="rolling-72h"): # 1 DETECT — fuse the feeds the State already pays for contacts = fuse(vms=cls_themis.stream(eez), # CLS TRITON/THEMIS VMS ais=ais.terrestrial_and_sat(eez), # terr + Copernicus Sat-AIS lrit=lrit.stream(eez), sar=copernicus.sentinel1_vds(eez), # VDS + SAR vessel detections ers=ers.logbook_entries(window), # e-logbook declared catch landings=ports.weighing_records()) # Killybegs/Castletownbere etc. for v in contacts.vessels(): # 2 ENRICH — history, ownership chain, prior infringements, quota/licence v.enrich(registry=cfr, owners=ownership_chain(v), history=infringement_history(v)) # 3 TRIAGE — vessel-behaviour risk (NOT person scoring) signals = [ vms_or_ais_gap(v), # dark-vessel / non-reporting window sar_contradiction(v), # SAR hull-fix with no VMS/AIS report ers_vs_landing_delta(v), # e.g. 357t declared vs 412t weighed transhipment_pattern(v), sensitive_area_proximity(v), # ICES box, closed area, gear restriction ] v.iuu_risk = behaviour_risk_score(signals) # 0.0..1.0 ; explainable v.obs_level = "inferred" if v.iuu_risk < 0.70: record(action="monitor", finding=v) # no task; logged, un-gated continue # 4 GATE — Decision Room + two-person dual control (DB CHECK enforces it) room = DecisionRoom(personas=["op_tasking","proportionality", "civil_society_foxglove","devils_advocate", "fisheries_data_analyst"]) verdict = room.deliberate(v) # proportionality P, dissent on record if not verdict.accepted: record(action="monitor", finding=v, note=verdict.reason); continue gate = dual_control_sign(signers=["naval_mio","sfpa_officer"]) # 2-of-2 QES if not gate.complete: halt(reason="gate incomplete — no tasking written"); continue # 5 TASK — allocate the scarce inspection capacity (Hungarian over assets) asset = optimise_assignment(v, assets=[le_patrol, port_inspectorate, sentinel1_pass]) # 6 EXECUTE — write tasking back through the lawful channel (human-gated only) execute(task=asset.task, target=v, channels=["naval_fmc","sfpa_port_office"]) # 7 BDA — assess outcome; only a confirmed result raises observation level bda = assess(re_weigh=ports.reweigh(v), board=naval.boarding_report(v)) if bda.confirms_discrepancy: v.obs_level = "confirmed" lodge_infringement(v, basis="Reg. (EU) 2023/2842", obs_level="confirmed") # DB CHECK gates on 'confirmed' # 8 CLOSE — seal the provenance chain; nothing is deleted, everything replayable close(finding=v, ledger=provenance_ledger, retention="7y")
The two refusals are explicit: monitor is the only un-gated disposition, and lodge_infringement only fires on obs_level == "confirmed" — matching the two DB CHECKs in §5.
§7 — nexus-workflows YAML DAG (declarative, blocking human-gate node)
YAML51 lines# nexus-workflows job — SFPA fisheries-control loop (NO cron: scheduled here, the law of the stack) workflow: sfpa-fisheries-control-loop trigger: schedule: "rolling-72h" # nexus-workflows owns ALL scheduling — never K8s cron on_event: ["new_sar_pass", "new_landing_record", "vms_gap_alert"] nodes: - id: detect_fuse run: synergy.fuse_feeds with: { feeds: [vms_cls_themis, ais_terr_sat, lrit, copernicus_sar_vds, ers_logbook, port_landings] } - id: enrich run: synergy.enrich_vessel needs: [detect_fuse] - id: triage run: synergy.iuu_behaviour_score # vessels/gear/catch only — no person scoring needs: [enrich] emit: iuu_risk_finding - id: branch_low_risk when: "iuu_risk < 0.70" run: synergy.record_monitor # un-gated 'monitor' disposition; logged needs: [triage] - id: decision_room when: "iuu_risk >= 0.70" run: synergy.decision_room with: { personas: [op_tasking, proportionality, civil_society_foxglove, devils_advocate, fisheries_data_analyst] } needs: [triage] - id: human_gate # <-- BLOCKING human-gate node type: manual_gate blocking: true require: { signatures: 2, roles: [naval_service_mio, sfpa_sea_fisheries_officer], method: QES } on_timeout: { after: "24h", action: halt_and_log } # no auto-approve, ever needs: [decision_room] - id: task_assign run: synergy.hungarian_assign with: { assets: [le_patrol_vessel, sfpa_port_inspectorate, sentinel1_tip_and_cue] } needs: [human_gate] - id: execute_writeback run: synergy.write_tasking with: { channels: [naval_fmc, sfpa_port_office] } needs: [task_assign] - id: bda run: synergy.assess_outcome with: { sources: [port_reweigh, naval_boarding_report] } needs: [execute_writeback] - id: lodge_or_close run: synergy.lodge_infringement_if_confirmed # only fires on obs_level == 'confirmed' needs: [bda] - id: seal_provenance run: synergy.seal_ledger with: { retention: "7y", merkle: true } needs: [lodge_or_close] audit: { ledger: provenance_ledger, prov_o: true, replayable: true }
human_gate is blocking: true with on_timeout: halt_and_log — the loop stops rather than auto-tasking. That single property is the difference between a decision-support tool and an automated enforcement machine, and it is the one the ombudsman cares about.
§8 — UI/UX mockups (verbatim generated ASCII)
The two blocks below are the exact stdout of python3 _build/archetypes/gen_sfpa-fisheries.py — machine-generated, alignment-guarded, filled with SFPA's real entities. Not hand-typed.
Figure b03.1 — globe_rmp (primary surface). ShellLayout + TopBar (with RendererChip: CesiumJS-globe, ChromeChip: tactical) + PccPill (rightSlot) + ClassificationBanner (EU-RESTRICTED / TLP:AMBER / T3) + LeftSidebar + MapConsole rendering the top-down CesiumJS-globe EEZ picture + a right-rail TARGETS list inside ChatTerminal + BottomStatusBar. The risk-ranked target is the dark-vessel candidate NORD-STJERNE (VMS gap + ERS/landing delta + SAR-no-report → IUU risk 0.88).

Figure — Recognised maritime picture (globe_rmp). Production-fidelity React surface (buildable); the faithful ASCII follows.
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Fisheries-Control Recognised Maritime Picture - SFPA + Naval FMC (CesiumJS-globe) |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------+
| . - '' - . IRISH EEZ 200nm :: Fisheries-Control RMP | TARGETS (sorted: IUU risk) |
| / o ----._ \ VMS(CLS THEMIS) + AIS + ERS + SAR + landings| NORD-STJERNE factory |
| | [!] VMS gap | EMODnet bathy :: IHO S-101 ENC :: ICES 6.a| VMS gap 3h2m off 6.a |
| | off Killybegs | F/V NORD-STJERNE (factory, foreign flag) | ERS 357t vs land 412t |
| | ERS vs landing| -> IUU risk 0.88 (VMS gap + weight delta) | +55t (15.4%) weight |
| \ S-1 SAR hit / Sentinel-1 IW confirms hull, no AIS/VMS | SAR-confirm, no report |
| \ Castletwn-B .'/ landing weight 412t vs ERS-declared 357t | 6 more high-risk vessels |
| ' - x__ - ' delta +55t (15.4%) :: 2018-audit pattern | 412 active VMS tracks |
| Camera {54.6N -9.2W alt 620km pitch -85} CesiumJS-globe | [#] Sentinel-1 IW pass |
| Concurrence: VMS-gap + ERS/landing delta + SAR-no-report | [#] LE patrol-day = 1 wk |
| -> IUU RISK 0.88 :: HUMAN GATE before any Naval/port tasking | [#] Killybegs re-weigh |
| | gate: board OR re-weigh |
| | vessels not people COP |
| | AI catch-ID = advisory |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------+
| VMS(CLS THEMIS)+AIS+LRIT+ERS+Copernicus VDS/SAR+landings :: prioritise scarce inspection days |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
Figure b03.2 — ledger (secondary surface). The Inspector/audit grammar: a tamper-evident EnforcementProvenanceLedger showing the loop closing on NORD-STJERNE (detect → SAR tip-and-cue → 2-of-2 gate → Killybegs re-weigh BDA → serious-infringement lodge), plus a low-risk vessel routed to monitor only. Each row carries a Merkle leaf; the drawer shows the dual QES, the PROV-O chain, 7-year retention, EU-audit readiness.

Figure — Provenance ledger (Merkle/PROV-O). Production-fidelity React surface (buildable); the faithful ASCII follows.
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Enforcement Provenance Ledger - SFPA infringement trail filter: [risk>=0.7 OR gated][72h] |
+------------+------+------------------+----------------------+-------------------------+----------+
| time/UTC | risk | vessel | trigger | gated action | merkle |
+------------+------+------------------+----------------------+-------------------------+----------+
| 08:14 | 0.88 | NORD-STJERNE | VMS gap 3h + SAR hit | tip-and-cue S-1 pass | 9f2a.. |
| 08:51 | 0.88 | NORD-STJERNE | ERS 357t vs land 412t| board+re-weigh queued | a13c.. |
| 09:30 | GATE | NORD-STJERNE | MIO + SFPA SO 2-sign | /dual-control APPROVE | c4e8.. |
| 12:07 | 0.88 | NORD-STJERNE | Killybegs re-weigh | BDA +55t confirmed | 7b21.. |
| 12:09 | FILE | NORD-STJERNE | obs_level=confirmed | serious-infringe lodge | e0d5.. |
| 09:18 | 0.41 | AN-GAEL-OG | minor logbook lag | monitor only (no task) | 5a90.. |
+------------+------+------------------+----------------------+-------------------------+----------+
| DETAIL c4e8.. 2/2 QES (MIO + SFPA Officer) PROV-O chain OK retain 7y EU-audit-ready |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
A bespoke SVG of the primary globe_rmp surface (real component names) is at _build/figures/sfpa-fisheries/uc-globe_rmp.svg.
§8b — Field-unit (Pixel) surfaces
The same scenario on the Pixel 10 Pro Fold field unit (Nexus Field app), tightly coordinated with the dashboard COP above — command pushes the task, the unit accepts + ACKs, shares position and reports back to the COP. Built on the same synergy.field_unit / field_task / field_report contract; see §9 and the cluster coordination composite.
Figure §8b.1 — Folded cover · tasking glance (ground_glance): the incoming IMMEDIATE task, ACCEPT + ACK, alert chips, bearing-to-objective.
Figure §8b.2 — Unfolded inner display · field COP: two-pane mini-map + task list + teammate roster + air/command coordination + PTT, with the Material-3 NavigationBar + Report FAB.
§9 — UI/UX flow (literal click-path)
Click-path (primary screen): Analyst opens MapConsole → the TARGETS rail (sorted: IUU risk) surfaces NORD-STJERNE @ 0.88 → click the target → Inspector opens (VMS gap 3h02m, ERS 357 t, landing 412 t, +55 t / 15.4%, SAR W=9.62) → press [ Tip-and-cue Sentinel-1 ] to corroborate → press [ Open Decision Room ] (right-docked ChatTerminal) → five persona bubbles deliberate; the Devil's-advocate "transponder fault" objection is logged then rebutted by the fisheries-data analyst → press [ /dual-control sign — Naval MIO ] ✓ then [ /dual-control sign — SFPA Officer ] ✓ → [ /execute → board + re-weigh ] unlocks (it is disabled until both signatures are present, mirroring the DB CHECK) → tasking writes back to the Naval FMC + Killybegs port office → the HistoryRail logs the swing → the ledger records the chain.
MapConsole(globe) ──▶ TARGETS rail ──▶ Inspector ──▶ Tip-and-cue S-1
│ │
▼ ▼
Decision Room (ChatTerminal) ──▶ 2-of-2 dual-control gate ──▶ /execute (board+re-weigh)
│ │
(refuse+log) ▼
└──────────────▶ EnforcementProvenanceLedger ──▶ BDA ──▶ lodge/close
§10 — Decision-Room transcript (the gated decision)
◀◀ EU-RESTRICTED · TLP:AMBER · T3 · FISHERIES CONTROL ▶▶
Decision Room — NORD-STJERNE (foreign pelagic factory vessel), IUU risk 0.88
⊟ Op-tasking persona [L3 Mistral-Large]
Reco: re-weigh at Killybegs on landing + tip-and-cue Sentinel-1 next pass;
stage an LÉ port-intercept option. Register a serious-infringement
ProspectiveItem. [ObsLvl: Inferred]
⊟ Proportionality persona [L3 Mistral-Large]
P=0.86. This is vessel-behaviour triage on declared-catch vs weighed-catch
plus a VMS gap — proportionate to allocate one of the few inspection days
left this year. NO individual is targeted; this is a regulated commercial
operator under the CFP. [ObsLvl: Direct on legal]
⊟ Civil-society persona [Foxglove flavour] [L3]
Agreed on the vessel/catch slice. RED LINE: this stays at vessel + catch
record. Do NOT resolve crew identity, do NOT biometrically ID anyone on
landing, and AI catch-ID (when REM arrives in 2027-28) is an ADVISORY the
officer confirms — never an automated penalty. Vessel telemetry ≠ people.
[ObsLvl: Asserted]
⊟ Devil's advocate persona [L3]
Counter: a 3-hour VMS gap off 6.a is ALSO consistent with a transponder
fault or a known dead-zone, and a +15% landing delta can be water/ice
weight on a pelagic catch. Do NOT advance a serious-infringement
attribution on a gap + a single weighing. [ObsLvl: Asserted]
⮑ RECO DOWNGRADED → "monitor + re-weigh only, no infringement file yet"
⊟ Fisheries-data analyst persona [L3 EuroLLM]
Gap REJECTED as innocent: Sentinel-1 IW puts a hull at 51.0N / 11.9W with
no corresponding VMS or AIS report (Fellegi-Sunter W=9.62 > Tμ). The
landing delta is post-de-watering weighed mass at the SFPA-supervised
Killybegs weighbridge, not an at-sea estimate. Two independent sources
agree. [ObsLvl: Direct]
⮑ RECO RESTORED → board/re-weigh APPROVED; infringement filing CONDITIONAL
on the BDA-confirmed re-weigh, not before.
⊟ Op-tasking [L3] revised final reco:
Re-weigh at Killybegs + Sentinel-1 tip-and-cue; LÉ port-intercept on
standby. Serious-infringement lodgement HELD until obs_level=confirmed.
NO crew-ID, NO biometric, NO person scoring.
──────────────────────────────────────────────
GATE VERDICT — 2-of-2 dual control required
[/dual-control sign — Naval Service MIO] ✓
[/dual-control sign — SFPA Sea-Fisheries Officer] ✓
P=0.86 ≥ P_min → ACCEPT (board + re-weigh)
Infringement: DEFERRED to BDA (DB CHECK: lodge only on 'confirmed')
The Devil's-advocate did real work: its "transponder fault / water-weight" steel-man downgraded the reco to "monitor + re-weigh only", and the fisheries-data analyst then restored it with two independent corroborants — and crucially, the infringement lodgement was held back until the BDA confirms. The swing is logged on the HistoryRail so an auditor can replay exactly why the tasking proceeded and why the filing waited.
§11 — Write-back, BDA, PROV-O chain, deltas-only regulatory traceback
Write-back. On the 2-of-2 gate, synergy.write_tasking posts a board+re-weigh order to the Naval FMC tasking bus and the Killybegs port office queue; the order carries the finding id, the two QES signatures, and the proportionality score. No order exists in the DB without both signatures (the enforcement_action CHECK).
BDA (loop close). The Killybegs weighbridge re-weigh returns 412 t against 357 t declared (+55 t / 15.4%) and the Naval boarding report corroborates the gear/area. The BDA raises obs_level from inferred → confirmed, which is the only state in which synergy.infringement_lodgement will accept a row. The loop then closes and seals.
PROV-O chain (W3C).
prov:Entity iuu_risk_finding:NORD-STJERNE-0.88
prov:wasDerivedFrom [vms_gap:182m, ers_logbook:357t, landing_weight:412t, sentinel1_iw:hull-fix]
prov:wasGeneratedBy activity:iuu_behaviour_score (synergy.triage, v-rc10)
prov:wasAssociatedWith agent:fisheries_data_analyst[L3 EuroLLM] (reco restore)
prov:wasInformedBy activity:decision_room → activity:dual_control_gate
prov:qualifiedAssociation { naval_mio QES, sfpa_officer QES }
prov:wasGeneratedBy activity:killybegs_reweigh → entity:bda_confirmed (+55t)
prov:wasDerivedFrom infringement_lodgement ⟸ obs_level='confirmed' (CHECK gate)
Every node is Merkle-leafed and retained 7 years; nothing is deleted, the whole chain is replayable.
Deltas-only regulatory traceback (only what differs from defaults). Legal basis is Reg. (EU) 2023/2842 (amended Control Regulation) as operationalised by Del. Reg. (EU) 2025/1766 + Impl. Reg. (EU) 2025/2196 (in force 10 Jan 2026); the weighing-control lineage is Reg. (EC) 1224/2009 (the 2018-audit instrument). The delta vs a generic maritime COP: the ERS-vs-landing-weight reconciliation edge and the confirmed-gated infringement lodgement are fisheries-specific and exist to answer the 2018 Killybegs finding and the 2026 ombudsman recommendation. AI Act posture: a fisheries-enforcement COP is plausibly Annex-III high-risk → FRIA carried; AI catch-ID is advisory-only, which keeps it clear of any prohibited practice. [verified — EUR-Lex 2025/1766; SFPA guidance; Irish Times 2018 audit] ⚖️ per-use-case AI-Act classification CONFIRM.
§12 — Buyer & stakeholders
- Economic buyer: the SFPA Authority (3-member executive) + the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (controls budget + EMFAF programme authority). Political sponsor: Minister of State for the Marine, Timmy Dooley (as of 2026). [verified — Oireachtas 2026-03-02] · which of SFPA-direct vs Department owns the platform budget line is an open question — see §22.
- Technical/operational champions: SFPA's monitoring / intelligence / ERS-VMS function (the competent authority that owns enforcement tasking and procured THEMIS); the Naval Service Fisheries Monitoring Centre (operates THEMIS/VMS monitoring under an SLA with the SFPA and provides the at-sea patrol assets — a co-buyer, not a stakeholder). [verified — sfpa.ie; military.ie; CLS]
- Influencers: the Oireachtas Joint Committee on Fisheries and Maritime Affairs (created the political mandate, 2026-05-26); EFCA (sets the REM/ABM technical bar); BIM / Marine Institute (EMFAF delivery bodies). [verified]
- Likely blockers: fishing-industry pushback on surveillance (the failed CCTV trial shows the sensitivity — lean hard on the foreign-vessel and vessels-not-people framing); procurement conservatism; the SFPA's relationship with incumbent CLS.
- Named SFPA / Naval FMC contacts: [Named contact TBD] — to be secured via the Naval/MAHI/Patrick intro before any formal approach.
§13 — Competition / incumbency + comparator (cited)
- CLS (Collecte Localisation Satellites, FR) — incumbent. Selected by the SFPA in 2018 to modernise the VMS fleet (TRITON ADVANCED on ~280 vessels >12m) and the THEMIS FMC used by the Defence Forces. A real moat on raw tracking. [verified — CLS — Irish authorities rely on CLS]
- Our wedge: we are not replacing VMS transponders — we ingest CLS/THEMIS VMS as one feed and add multi-source fusion + IUU risk-triage + the auditable closed action loop on top. Complement, not rip-and-replace.
- EFCA / EMSA / Copernicus — the EU baseline. They provide the EU-level correlated picture (VMS+AIS+SAT-AIS+LRIT+VDS+SAR) and set the standard. Our differentiation is a national, sovereign, tenant-owned, write-back-enabled picture that plugs Ireland's enforcement gap rather than depending on shared EU services. [verified — EFCA]
- Generic GIS/MDA primes (Palantir, big SIs) — our angle is sovereignty + decline-safety + faster, cheaper Irish delivery.
Comparator (one line): CLS owns the transponder/track layer and EFCA/EMSA own the EU baseline, but no incumbent owns the fusion-triage-enforcement-loop layer with ombudsman-grade auditability — that slot is unclaimed, and it is the slot the 2026-05-26 report demands.
Competition is moderate-to-real: entrenched on tracking, open above it.
§14 — Readiness (honest, pre-pilot)
- Status: pre-incorporation, pre-revenue, pre-pilot. The ~178-surface gallery is demonstrable; the maritime COP, triple-renderer map and action-loop are a prototype, not a deployed enforcement system.
- Best-developed surface: the maritime COP (the seed beachhead, shared with
b01naval-service-mahi) — credible for a demo of vessel fusion + risk overlay + tasking. - Reuse: Copernicus keys (Sentinel-3/5P, CDSE S3) are already live in our environment; the
globe_rmp+ledgersurfaces, the AI Provider Router, the Decision Room, and the provenance ledger are built components reused across the maritime cluster. - Real gaps to close before a pilot: a live VMS/ERS connector (CLS/THEMIS + ERS e-logbook data formats), Copernicus SAR/VDS ingest at operational cadence, a formal provenance-ledger evidence chain admissible in serious-infringement proceedings, and security accreditation for handling enforcement-grade data. None are exotic — but they are real build, not slideware.
- Honest framing to the buyer: "a working sovereign maritime COP today; co-build the fisheries-control application with you under an EMFAF-funded pilot" — do not over-claim deployed enforcement capability.
§15 — ENGAGEMENT PLAYBOOK (first-contact → signed contract)
The motion is the discovery-playbook adapted for a Naval-gated, EU-funded regulator — land the maritime COP conversation first (via MAHI/Naval), then arrive at the SFPA with a working picture rather than a deck.
Stage 1 — First contact (warm intro)
- Trigger: the maritime/MAHI conversation is live (or Patrick confirms a route to the Department of the Marine / SFPA).
- Owner: Founder.
- Activity: a single warm-intro email; no cold approach to a public body.
- Template (warm-intro email, adapted):
Subject: A sovereign fisheries-control picture for the foreign-vessel gap [Name] — [warm-intro context via Naval/MAHI/Patrick]. The 2026-05-26 committee report asked for stronger enforcement on non-Irish vessels in the EEZ and an SFPA ombudsman, at the same time as the new control rules landed (10 Jan 2026) and REM arrives 2027-28. We build an EU-sovereign operating picture that fuses the feeds you already pay for — CLS VMS, AIS, ERS, Copernicus SAR, landing-weights — into one risk-triaged, human-gated, fully-audited loop that puts the few inspection days you have onto the highest-risk factory vessels. We monitor vessels and catch records, not people. Could I show you a 20-minute walkthrough against your kind of data — no cost, no obligation?
- Exit criterion: a named SFPA/Department/Naval-FMC contact agrees to a discovery call.
- Deliverable: a confirmed discovery slot + the Declined-List affirmation in writing.
Stage 2 — Free discovery (60-min, no slides)
- Trigger: discovery slot confirmed.
- Owner: Founder (+ MAHI technical counterpart if the Naval FMC is in the room).
- Activity — the 60-min agenda (adapted):
- 0:00-0:05 Frame & permission ("discovery, not a pitch; stay unclassified").
- 0:05-0:20 Current picture: "Walk me through a foreign-factory-vessel suspicion from VMS gap to landing — how many systems, what's the slowest step, how do you task the Naval Service?"
- 0:20-0:35 Governance: lawful basis for VMS/ERS/landing data; AI-Act/REM scope; where data + AI run today; can they currently show why a tasking happened (raw fact vs inference)?
- 0:35-0:45 Stakeholders/budget/timing: SFPA-direct vs Department budget; EMFAF Priority-1 runway; Naval-FMC appetite; what would justify a pilot this year?
- 0:45-0:55 Map their loop onto detect→enrich→triage→gate→task→execute→assess→close; find where they jump detect→act with no triage/gate (that gap is the wedge).
- 0:55-1:00 Reflect the top 3 pains back; ask for the scoped-demo slot.
- Exit criterion: a named sponsor agrees there is a problem worth solving + asks for the demo. Kill signal: any drift toward crew biometrics / person scoring (we decline, on the record).
- Deliverable: a same-day discovery write-up (sponsor, budget owner, top-3 pains, lawful basis, the action-loop gap, Declined-List PASS, funding vehicle).
Stage 3 — Scoped demo (their loop, replayed)
- Trigger: discovery write-up shows a fit + a sponsor.
- Owner: Founder.
- Activity: the bespoke fisheries RMP — AIS + a sample VMS feed + Copernicus SAR + a synthetic ERS/landing-weight delta — driving the NORD-STJERNE worked example through the human-gated tasking + the provenance-ledger walk-through, framed around foreign-factory-vessel prioritisation. Lead with the AI Provider Router (refuses out-of-jurisdiction calls), the 5-persona Decision Room (civil-society reviewer inside the decision), and the ombudsman-grade ledger.
- Exit criterion: sponsor asks "could we try this on a real slice of our work?"
- Deliverable: the one-page pilot proposal (Stage 4).
Stage 4 — Pilot (the 1-page proposal, filled)
- Trigger: demo exit ask answered yes.
- Owner: Founder + MAHI/partner-vehicle (contracting) + buyer champion.
- Activity — pilot proposal, filled for the SFPA:
Title & sponsor: "Foreign-Factory-Vessel Risk-Triage Pilot" — sponsor: [SFPA monitoring lead TBD]; budget owner: [SFPA / DAFM TBD]. Problem (their words): "We can't inspect the foreign factory vessels at sea anymore, and we're under a committee + ombudsman spotlight to prove our control is fair and auditable." The one thing we'll prove: "We can fuse VMS + AIS + Copernicus SAR + ERS/landing-weights into one picture and correctly rank the highest-IUU-risk vessels for the limited inspection days available, with every decision human-gated and auditable." (baseline X / target Y = TBD, measured in week 1.) Scope — in: one fishery / region (e.g. NW pelagic, Killybegs landings),
globe_rmp+ledgersurfaces, detect→triage→gate→task→ledger. Out: crew identity, biometrics, person scoring, autonomous action (all Declined-List items explicitly excluded). Data & lawful basis: VMS/ERS/landing (non-personal vessel/catch records) + Copernicus SAR; EU-hosted; classification × isolation tier set with the sponsor; DPA if any personal data appears. Success criteria: (1) % of high-risk vessels correctly prioritised vs an officer baseline; (2) time-to-flag a VMS/ERS/landing discrepancy; (3) a clean, replayable provenance chain on every gated action (ombudsman/EU-audit readiness). Timeline: 8-12 weeks, mid-point checkpoint at week 5. Commercials: EUR 0 to the SFPA if EMFAF/grant-funded; otherwise Tier-1/2 EUR 120-300k. Production band Tier-1 EUR 120-240k/yr … Tier-3 EUR 2.4-4.8m/yr (indicative only). Funding vehicle: EMFAF Priority 1; Research-Ireland Defence Challenge (Maritime Situational Awareness) for the Naval-paired slice; EUDIS/EDF maritime track. After: an LOI if criteria are met. - Exit criterion: pilot success criteria met or credibly trending.
- Deliverable: measured pilot results + an LOI draft.
Stage 5 — LOI (the milestone)
- Trigger: pilot criteria met.
- Owner: Founder (signing in own name pre-incorporation, s.45 ratify) or MAHI/partner vehicle.
- Activity — LOI checklist (key items): parties (SFPA + Nexus Synergy Ltd / founder pre-incorporation); statement of intent conditional on funding/procurement; scope carried from the pilot; success criteria referenced; named sponsor + budget owner; indicative timeline; indicative commercials ("to be scoped under [EMFAF/eTenders vehicle]"); conditions (funding award, accreditation, DSA); non-binding except confidentiality; Irish governing law; Declined-List affirmation; signatures + solicitor review (flag, do not assume).
- Exit criterion: a signed LOI naming a sponsor + the next step.
- Deliverable: signed LOI → triggers the Patrick check.
Stage 6 — Signed contract
- Trigger: LOI + a contracting vehicle that can sign + invoice (MAHI prime, or NewCo post-Stamp-4).
- Owner: partner-vehicle / NewCo + buyer procurement.
- Activity: EMFAF-funded / eTenders procurement (negotiated or framework as advised); national-platform scope paired with the Naval Service.
- Exit criterion: executed contract.
- Deliverable: the Tier-class national fisheries-control platform engagement.
§16 — PM / timeline
Stage \ Month M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 M9 M10 M11 M12
1 First contact ██
2 Free discovery ████
3 Scoped demo ███
4 Pilot ██████████ (8-12 wk, EMFAF/grant)
5 LOI ████
6 Contract (paid) ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ ← gated by Stamp-4 / MAHI vehicle
└ CRITICAL PATH: ─────────────────────────[Stamp-1G → partner-vehicle/Stamp-4 gate]──▶ PAID
Milestones: ▲M2 sponsor agrees pain ▲M3 demo "try on real data?" ▲M6 pilot criteria met
▲M7 signed LOI (Patrick check) ▲M9+ contracting vehicle live ▲M12 paid engagement
Critical path: the LOI is reachable on the strength of the demo + pilot, but a PAID pilot/contract is gated by the Stamp-1G / partner-vehicle resolution (MAHI as contracting prime, or NewCo post-Stamp-4). Until that gate lifts, the loop runs on free discovery + grant-funded pilot only.
RACI
| Activity | Founder | Warm-intro sponsor (Patrick/MAHI) | MAHI / partner-vehicle | Buyer champion (SFPA/Naval FMC) | Buyer procurement (DAFM/SFPA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First contact / intro | R | A | C | I | — |
| Free discovery | R/A | C | C | C | I |
| Scoped demo | R/A | I | C | C | I |
| Pilot delivery | R | I | A (contract+deliver) | C | I |
| LOI | R | C | A | A | C |
| Contract (paid) | C | I | R | C | A |
§17 — Funding / procurement vehicle
- EMFAF (European Maritime, Fisheries and Aquaculture Fund) 2021-2027. Ireland's programme is EUR 258.4m total (EUR 142.4m EU contribution); Priority 1 = EUR 138m (53.5%) covers "controls and checks, market intelligence, maritime surveillance and security" — the exact line our COP/triage sits under. [verified — EC — Ireland EUR 142m EMFAF; eufunds.ie/emfaf]
- EU-funded control-modernisation precedent: the 2026 control-regulation upgrade and 2027-28 REM mandate are explicit modernisation drivers EMFAF is designed to co-fund — a strong "the money is already earmarked for this" narrative.
- Grant ladder for the pilot: Innovation Voucher (EUR 5k, CeADAR), PSSF (up to EUR 100k), HPSU Feasibility (up to EUR 30k), Research-Ireland Defence Challenge (Maritime Situational Awareness, MAHI fit), EUDIS/EDF maritime (EDF 2026 closes 29 Sep 2026, consortium-only).
- Procurement mechanics (verify): likely OJEU / eTenders public tender; budget cycle tied to EMFAF calls + Department vote. TBD: exact contract vehicle; whether a framework already covers VMS/surveillance (CLS sits inside one); the 2028+ EMFAF-successor envelope.
§18 — TWO-STAGE FORMULA SCORECARD
Every factor is [PRIOR] with a dated one-line rationale (2026-06-05). Formula per
formula-worked-examples.md.
Stage-1 vector {mandate_pull, access_warmth, demonstrability, decline_safety, white_space, cycle_speed, pillar_fit}:
| Factor | w | Score | Dated rationale (2026-06-05) [PRIOR] |
|---|---|---|---|
mandate_pull | .22 | 5 | Parliamentary mandate (Oireachtas report 2026-05-26, 14 recs + ombudsman) + control regs in force 10 Jan 2026 + 2027-28 REM + 2018 audit scar + EMFAF P1 EUR 138m — pull is exceptional. |
access_warmth | .22 | 2 | Patrick + Naval/MAHI are real but indirect to the SFPA itself; no named SFPA contact yet (Naval is the lever). |
demonstrability | .18 | 4 | Reuses the maritime COP + globe_rmp/ledger; Copernicus SAR keys already live; needs a VMS/ERS connector spike. |
decline_safety | .14 | 5 | Vessels/gear/catch — not people; clear of every Declined item; defensible before committee + ombudsman. |
white_space | .10 | 3 | CLS owns tracking + EFCA/EMSA the EU baseline, but the fusion-triage-enforcement-loop layer is unclaimed. |
cycle_speed | .08 | 2 | Gov regulator + EU-funded + tender + Naval dependency = slow; deadlines help but procurement gates. |
pillar_fit | .06 | 5 | Detect→triage→gate→task→close fusion COP is the bullseye of the action-loop thesis. |
S1 = 3.72 → P_LOI = 0.55 / (1 + exp(-1.15·(3.72 - 2.6))) = 0.431 (43.1%) [PRIOR].
Stage-2 vector {contractability, funding_to_pay, procurement_clarity, incumbency_displacement, time_to_value, reference_leverage}:
| Factor | v | Score | Dated rationale (2026-06-05) [PRIOR] |
|---|---|---|---|
contractability | .24 | 1 | Solo founder on Stamp 1G — no signable/invoiceable vehicle until MAHI-prime or Stamp 4. |
funding_to_pay | .22 | 4 | EMFAF Priority 1 (EUR 138m) explicitly covers controls/surveillance; vehicle exists, exact call TBD. |
procurement_clarity | .18 | 2 | Likely OJEU/eTenders; CLS sits in an existing framework; our slot is a gap but the route is unmapped. |
incumbency_displacement | .16 | 4 | We sit above CLS (ingest THEMIS VMS as a feed), not rip-and-replace — low displacement risk. |
time_to_value | .12 | 3 | Demo-to-value can land inside the 2027-28 REM window, but accreditation extends TTV. |
reference_leverage | .08 | 2 | First-of-kind logo; a delivered maritime/b01 reference would de-risk it but doesn't exist yet. |
S2 = 2.64 → P_raw = 0.70 / (1 + exp(-1.1·(2.64 - 2.8))) = 0.319 (31.9%) [PRIOR].
Legal gate G = V · T (t_resolve = 12 mo, H_conv = 30 → T = 0.60):
| V (vehicle) | G | P(Contract|LOI) = G·P_raw | P(Contract) = P_LOI·G·P_raw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 solo Stamp-1G (today) | 0.06 | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| 0.45 Dogpatch-brokered entity | 0.27 | 8.6% | 3.7% |
| 0.75 MAHI confirmed prime | 0.45 | 14.4% | 6.2% |
| 1.00 Stamp-4 + incorporated | 0.60 | 19.2% | 8.3% |
Score100 = S1 × 20 = 74.4. Reconciles to the board_anchor (71.6, band 65-79 NOW-NEXT) within ~3 pts ✓. Honest divergence note: my computed P_LOI = 43.1% sits above the board_anchor to-LOI band of 22-35% — the gap is driven entirely by mandate_pull=5 + decline_safety=5 against a genuinely weak access_warmth=2; if access_warmth is in truth a 1 (no SFPA route at all), S1 falls to 3.50 and P_LOI ≈ 38%. I report 43.1% as the [PRIOR] but flag it as the most uncertain number in the package, to be re-scored the moment a named SFPA/Naval-FMC contact exists. to-buy 20-32% (board) is consistent with the V=0.75 (MAHI) row above.
§19 — Commercial
| Tier | Scope | Annual band | ACV (indicative) | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pilot (entry) | One fishery/region, shadow/sample feeds, globe_rmp+ledger | EUR 120-300k (often EUR 0 if EMFAF/grant-funded) | one-off | 8-12 wk, success-criteria-gated |
| Tier 1 | Single-fishery fusion COP, live VMS/ERS/SAR ingest | EUR 120-240k/yr | ~EUR 180k | annual, EU-hosted, DPA |
| Tier 2 | Multi-region + provenance ledger + REM-ready lane | EUR 300-900k/yr | ~EUR 600k | annual + accreditation |
| Tier 3 | National fisheries-control platform, Naval-FMC paired | EUR 2.4-4.8m/yr | ~EUR 3.4m | multi-year, OJEU/EMFAF |
Requirements to invoice: a contracting vehicle (MAHI prime or NewCo post-Stamp-4); a DPA + DSA; security accreditation for enforcement-grade data; an EMFAF/eTenders procurement route. Cost advantage: open-source substrate + sovereign HPC + shared conformity file + no forward-deployed-engineer dependency.
§20 — Legal blockers
- Stamp-1G cap (X1) — applied here. The solo founder cannot be a director/shareholder, self-employed, or sign a paid contract until Stamp 4. Effect: no paid pilot/contract is signable by the solo founder today (the
V=0.10gate). Mitigation: MAHI as contracting prime (liftsV → 0.75), or an EEA-resident-director NewCo (Patrick / Manuel under s.137), or Stamp 4. ⚖️ CONFIRM (immigration solicitor; irishimmigration.ie). - EU AI Act (X2). A fisheries-enforcement COP is plausibly Annex-III high-risk → FRIA required; Art-5 prohibitions applicable 2 February 2025 (not 2 Aug 2025) — we are clear of them because AI catch-ID is advisory-only and there is no biometric / predictive-policing / social-scoring component. ⚖️ per-use-case classification CONFIRM.
- GDPR / data residency (X3). Vessel/catch records are largely non-personal; any personal data (e.g. master's name on a logbook) is governed by a DPA, EU-hosted.
[verified]regime. - Dual-use export (X4) — Reg. (EU) 2021/821. Vessel/comms monitoring can classify as controlled cyber-surveillance; export classification per integrated config. ⚖️ CONFIRM (export counsel).
- Defence procurement / Art-346 (X5). If the Naval-FMC pairing pulls the contract into security-sensitive scope, a negotiated/exempt procedure may apply.
[verified]regime. - Buyer-specific — evidence admissibility. For the provenance ledger to support a serious-infringement proceeding under Reg. (EU) 2023/2842, the evidence chain must meet an admissibility/accreditation bar. ⚖️ CONFIRM (Irish solicitor) — flagged in §22.
- Pre-incorporation contracting (X7). Founder personally liable until NewCo formed; sign NDAs/MOUs in own name (s.45 ratifiable). ⚖️ CONFIRM.
§21 — Warm-intro contact + the specific ask
- Primary lever — MAHI maritime cluster + Naval Service. Pieter-Jan Note (MAHI CEO) — founder-to-founder. Ask: "When we walk the joint edge+brain maritime play into the Defence Forces RTI Unit / Naval Service, add the SFPA fisheries-control application as the second story on the same picture — the SFPA's at-sea enforcement is the Naval Service, so a Naval-FMC relationship is the natural conduit to the SFPA." [verified person; email not public]
- Secondary — Patrick Walsh (Dogpatch). Ask: "Test whether your state/semi-state network reaches the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (Marine division) or the SFPA monitoring/intelligence function, for a free-discovery session on the foreign-factory-vessel triage gap." [verified — patrick@dogpatchlabs.com]
- Sequence: land the Naval/MAHI maritime-awareness conversation first; the SFPA becomes the control/enforcement application of the same picture — de-risking the SFPA sale by arriving with a working maritime COP rather than a slide deck.
§22 — Open questions + Sources
Open questions (do not assert until resolved):
- Budget owner — SFPA-direct or the Department of the Marine via the EMFAF Operational Programme? (Determines the buyer.) [value: TBD]
- Existing frameworks — does the CLS VMS contract or an EFCA/EMSA service already cover the fusion layer, or is there a clean gap? Check eTenders/OJEU for live fisheries-control surveillance tenders. [value: TBD]
- Naval-FMC appetite — will the FMC treat us as a partner feeding their tasking, not a competitor to THEMIS? Make-or-break. [value: TBD]
- EMFAF runway — how much of the EUR 138m Priority-1 envelope is uncommitted for 2026-2027, and the 2028+ successor-fund shape? [value: TBD]
- Evidence-accreditation bar — what certification/security level makes the provenance ledger admissible in serious-infringement proceedings? ⚖️ CONFIRM. [value: TBD]
- REM 2027-28 ownership — is the SFPA or the Department leading REM procurement, and is an AI-assisted catch-ID lane in funding scope now (a second, larger wedge)? [value: TBD]
- Named contacts at the SFPA + Naval FMC — [Named contact TBD]; secure via the Naval/MAHI/Patrick intro.
Sources (consolidated, dated 2026-06-05):
- SFPA mandate/scope — sfpa.ie/What-We-Do [verified]
- Minister of State Dooley / SFPA reporting line — Oireachtas press release, 2026-03-02 [verified]
- Foreign vessels uninspected; Naval inspections 1,131→204 (2021-25); none in 2026 — The Fishing Daily; Afloat [verified]
- 2026-05-26 committee report (14 recs, ombudsman, enforcement on non-Irish vessels) — RTÉ; Oireachtas [verified]
- 2018 EU audit — Killybegs weighing manipulation, ~8,450 t under-report — Irish Times [verified]
- Control regs (EU) 2025/1766 + 2025/2196 in force 10 Jan 2026; REM phased 2027-28 — SFPA guidance; The Fishing Daily; EUR-Lex 2025/1766 [verified]
- EFCA REM guidelines + AI catch-ID; failed CCTV trial — The Fishing Daily REM; The Fishing Daily CCTV [verified]
- EFCA — new technologies for maritime surveillance (VMS+AIS+SAT-AIS+LRIT+VDS+SAR) — efca.europa.eu [verified]
- CLS incumbency (TRITON ADVANCED ~280 vessels >12m; THEMIS FMC; 2018) — groupcls.com [verified]
- EMFAF IE EUR 258.4m / EUR 142.4m EU; Priority 1 EUR 138m — EC; eufunds.ie [verified]
- Source card —
03-gtm/target-packages/sfpa-fisheries.md; depth pattern — AW theme UC-37/UC-50 (W-12 RMP,nexus-synergy-ei-sovereign-v2-aw-t03.md).
