Nexus Synergy Engagement Package — B01 · Irish Naval Service / Defence Forces RTI Unit (the front door, via the Defence Enterprise Committee) + Irish Coast Guard (IRCG)

STANDING BANNER — read before using this package. (1) Status honesty. Nexus Synergy Ltd is pre-incorporation, pre-revenue, pre-pilot. The Irish Naval Service, the Defence Forces RTI Unit, the Department of Defence and the Irish Coast Guard are TARGETS, not customers, partners, or deployments. MAHI is a prospective edge partner, not a signed one. Our ~178-surface UI gallery is a gallery, not traction. Nothing here is a contract, an LOI, or a commitment, and Patrick's "conditional cheque on a first LOI" is a genuine-but-conditional signal, not money in hand. (2) Anti-cookie-cutter. The §8 mockups are generated by _build/archetypes/gen_naval-service-mahi-mda.py and filled with this buyer's real entities (Irish EEZ ~450,000 km², a dark-vessel candidate near the CELTIC-1 cable corridor, the MAHI Alpha-8 USV edge, the C295 / LÉ tip-and-cue, the IRCG-117 / RNLI SAR picture). They are this buyer's screens, not a reused shell. (3) Every probability is [PRIOR] — a subjective pre-pilot estimate for prioritisation, never a forecast. Re-score after every real conversation. This is civil-security / maritime-domain-awareness framing, NOT warfighting; neutrality-compatible by construction.

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§0 — Header + one-line thesis

Irish EEZ Maritime-Domain-Awareness COP — MAHI edge + Nexus Synergy sovereign brain. A sovereign, human-gated recognised maritime picture (RMP) that fuses sparse Irish sensors — AIS, Sat-AIS, the new €60m Thales sonar, C295 maritime-patrol returns, MAHI uncrewed-surface-vessel edge feeds and (optionally) the Sea-Scan fibre-sensing pilot — into one continuous, auditable picture of a 450,000 km² ocean the State physically cannot patrol, closing the loop detect → enrich → triage → human-gate → task → assess → close without ever resolving a person's identity.

One line: "You've just written in your own strategy that you need a national maritime security centre and a shared maritime picture you don't yet have, and you're buying the sensors that feed it. We are the EU-sovereign, Irish-built decision layer that fuses those sensors — above Thales and Airbus, not replacing them — with MAHI's uncrewed edge extending your reach without adding crew. Information instead of hulls."

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§1 — Entity snapshot (cited)

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§2 — The pain (web-verified, dated, cited)

1. A tiny, shrinking fleet against an enormous ocean. Naval Service patrol days roughly halved 2020→2024 (to ~428 days); over half the fleet has been tied up at points; the service is >300 personnel short of an establishment of ~1,094. In Jan 2025 LÉ George Bernard Shaw deployed with its 76mm main gun non-functional — one ordnance technician left. The State cannot put enough hulls on 450,000 km², so it must substitute information for presence. [verified — Irish Times 11 Jan 2025; Irish Examiner]
2. Sub-sea cable / seabed-infrastructure threat is now a named national-security concern. ~75% of transatlantic cables transit or pass near Irish waters. In 2025: a Russian-linked cargo ship dropped anchor near a cable in Irish waters; the intelligence ship Viktor Leonov was shadowed in the EEZ for ~36h; ~245 shadow-fleet vessels transited the EEZ 450+ times in seven months. Government responses: the €60m sonar buy, a cable-sabotage research programme (Dec 2025), and Ireland joining a naval-intelligence-sharing network (Apr 2025). [verified — Irish Times; CSIS Ireland subsea case study; RTÉ Brainstorm 30 Jul 2025; Irish Times 5 Dec 2025]
3. No sovereign fusion layer today — the picture is to-be-built. The NMSS itself frames the "national maritime security centre" as a capability to establish; the Defence Forces is "working to establish a recognised maritime picture" — i.e. it does not yet have one. Sensors are being bought piecemeal (sonar, C295, Sea-Scan) with no published decision/COP layer to fuse them. [verified — gov.ie NMSS; RTÉ 28 Feb 2026]
4. AI gap-filling is now official policy. The Defence Forces is explicitly using AI to cover personnel/resource shortfalls (incl. Sea-Scan AI vessel detection) — the institutional appetite for software force-multipliers is open. [verified — Irish Times 16 May 2026]
5. The winner of the maritime-awareness grant is a sensor, not a picture. Sea-Scan (Trinity-ADAPT, led by Prof Marco Ruffini + Dr John Kennedy with DF Liaison Cdr Cathal Power) won the MSA challenge Feb 2026 using DAS + State-of-Polarisation fibre to detect dark vessels. It is a feed, not a fusion/decision layer — which leaves the COP slot open. [verified — TCD Feb 2026; Engineers Ireland]

Net: Ireland has (a) written down that it needs a shared maritime picture it doesn't have, (b) started buying the sensors that will feed it, (c) endorsed AI as the way to cover its capacity gap, and (d) funded a sensor in the awareness grant — without owning the sovereign fusion/decision layer. That is the exact shaped hole this package fills.

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§3 — Use-case & value (DECLINE-SAFE framing)

The bundle. MAHI provides the EU-sovereign edge (vessel/sensor autonomy, perception, fusion at the vessel — incl. uncrewed surface platforms that extend reach without adding crew). Nexus Synergy provides the EU-sovereign brain: a multi-vessel / multi-domain COP that fuses MAHI edge feeds + the new sonar + C295/sonobuoy + AIS + Sat-AIS + satellite + (optionally) Sea-Scan into one recognised maritime picture, with the closed action loop on top — over a customer-editable maritime ontology.

Value propositions:

• Substitute information for hulls. Anomaly detection on the EEZ (dark vessels, AIS spoofing/loitering near cable corridors, shadow-fleet pattern-of-life) so the few available assets are vectored only where it matters.
• Sub-sea cable watch. A cable-corridor geofence that correlates anchor-drop / loiter behaviour near the cable landings + the €60m sonar returns + Sea-Scan DAS, raising one triaged alert with a human-gated tasking recommendation. Directly serves the NMSS undersea-infrastructure objective and the Dec-2025 cable-research programme.
• The "national maritime security centre," in software. Civil (IRCG, SFPA, EMSA/CISE) + military (Naval Service, Air Corps) feeds in one shared, classification-partitioned picture — exactly the whole-of-government centre the NMSS proposes. The classification-aware AI Provider Router + conformity-by-construction (FRIA + provenance ledger + transparency portal) make it defensibly sovereign and audit-ready.
• SAR coordination for IRCG. A multi-asset SAR common picture + tasking write-back for the new Bristow aviation fleet and the RNLI — a lower-classification, faster-to-pilot civil wedge (the second mockup, §8).

DECLINE-SAFE — explicitly out of scope (and contractually excluded):

• NOT predictive policing · NOT real-time/biometric identification · NOT emotion recognition · NOT social scoring · NOT untargeted scraping · NOT psychometric profiling.
• This is maritime-domain-awareness / coast-guard / critical-infrastructure protection — dual-use civil security, not warfighting. The COP works on vessel tracks and infrastructure telemetry, not persons. Vessel identity is pseudonymised in the UI; crew-identity resolution is structurally forbidden without a Tier-4 warrant (enforced as a DB CHECK, §5). The escalation ceiling is a Naval/Coast-Guard vector or VHF challenge under maritime-safety authority, never SIGINT collection on individuals.
• Neutrality-compatible: sold as situational awareness and infrastructure protection, never force projection — which fits Irish military-neutrality sensibilities and keeps the whole engagement clear of every Declined-List item.

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§4 — Ontology (this buyer's domain entities + relationships)

Entities
  Vessel            (per MMSI + IMO + flag-state + owner-chain where known)
  AIS-Contact       (per-ping LatLon + heading + SOG + spoof-suspicion + receive-station)
  SatAIS-Contact    (Copernicus/EMSA pass-geometry confidence)
  SAR-Scene-Match   (Sentinel-1 IW; centroid LatLon; backscatter; estimated LOA)
  USV-Edge-Cue      (MAHI Alpha-8: EO/IR perception cue, on-scene, no crew aboard)
  SubseaCable-Seg   (CELTIC-1 corridor; criticality weight; landfall)
  Sonar-Contact     (Thales towed-array, OPV, ~2027; bearing + classification)
  SAR-Distress      (IRCG: distress LatLon, casualty count, drift cone)
  Rescue-Asset      (IRCG-117 helo, RNLI ALB, C295, LÉ OPV; posture + ETA + fit)
  Sanctions-Entry   (CFSP framework; per-vessel / per-flag pattern)

Relationships
  Vessel        --ais_telemetry-->        AIS-Contact
  AIS-Contact   --contradicted_by-->      {SatAIS-Contact, SAR-Scene-Match, Sonar-Contact}
  USV-Edge-Cue  --corroborates-->         AIS-Contact          (MAHI edge visual)
  AIS-Contact   --loiters_near-->         SubseaCable-Seg
  Vessel        --sanctioned_via-->       Sanctions-Entry       (where present)
  SAR-Distress  --assigned-->             Rescue-Asset          (Hungarian optimum, human-gated)

The ontology is customer-editable: the Naval Service MOC can add a HF-Radar-Contact entity or re-weight SubseaCable-Seg criticality without a vendor change-request — the differentiator versus a prime's fixed sensor-bolt-on dashboard.

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§5 — Data model (2 synergy.* tables, RLS + a load-bearing CHECK)

Entities are org_id-scoped for the app.current_org_id RLS predicate (Naval Service MOC tenant ≠ IRCG tenant ≠ a Member-State Navy tenant). The load-bearing safety property is that no crew-identity / SIGINT escalation may be written without a Tier-4 warrant reference — the civil-security boundary, enforced in the database, not just the UI.

SQL
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-- Dark-vessel candidate from AIS-vs-SatAIS-vs-SAR contradiction + MAHI USV edge cue, org-scoped + RLS.
CREATE TABLE synergy.dark_vessel_candidate (
    id                  uuid PRIMARY KEY DEFAULT gen_random_uuid(),
    org_id              uuid NOT NULL,                       -- RLS: app.current_org_id
    mmsi                text NOT NULL,                       -- '308194632'
    flag_state          text,                               -- 'CMR'
    self_report_pos     geography(POINT, 4326) NOT NULL,     -- 51.4N 11.2W (broadcast AIS)
    satais_pos          geography(POINT, 4326),              -- 51.0N 11.9W (Copernicus EMSA)
    delta_nm            numeric(6,2) NOT NULL DEFAULT 0,      -- 41.00
    spoof_score         numeric(4,3) NOT NULL,               -- 0.910
    sar_link_weight     numeric(6,2),                        -- Fellegi-Sunter W = 9.62
    usv_edge_cue        boolean NOT NULL DEFAULT false,      -- MAHI Alpha-8 EO/IR corroboration
    near_cable_segment  text,                                -- 'CELTIC-1'
    obs_level           text NOT NULL DEFAULT 'inferred'
                        CHECK (obs_level IN ('asserted','reported','inferred','direct','confirmed')),
    crew_id_warrant_ref text,                                -- Tier-4 warrant; NULL until issued
    sigint_escalated_at timestamptz,                         -- NULL while Tier-3 civil COP
    prov_o              jsonb NOT NULL,
    -- LOAD-BEARING INVARIANT: no crew-identity / SIGINT escalation without a Tier-4 warrant.
    CHECK (sigint_escalated_at IS NULL OR crew_id_warrant_ref IS NOT NULL)
);
ALTER TABLE synergy.dark_vessel_candidate ENABLE ROW LEVEL SECURITY;
CREATE POLICY org_isolation ON synergy.dark_vessel_candidate
    USING (org_id = current_setting('app.current_org_id')::uuid);

-- Human-gated tasking order (Naval vector / IRCG SAR / VHF challenge); execute only after dual-control sign-off.
CREATE TABLE synergy.tasking_order (
    id              uuid PRIMARY KEY DEFAULT gen_random_uuid(),
    org_id          uuid NOT NULL,
    candidate_id    uuid REFERENCES synergy.dark_vessel_candidate(id),
    task_kind       text NOT NULL CHECK (task_kind IN ('visual_identify','vhf_challenge','sar_vector','sonar_cue')),
    asset_id        text NOT NULL,                            -- 'CASA-235-CM252' | 'IRCG-117' | 'RNLI-ARAN-ALB'
    lawful_basis    text NOT NULL,                            -- 'Maritime Safety Act 2005' | 'Defence Act 1954 s6'
    sign1_actor     text,  sign1_at timestamptz,              -- MIO duty
    sign2_actor     text,  sign2_at timestamptz,              -- N2 OOW / IRCG duty coordinator
    executed_at     timestamptz,                              -- NULL until BOTH signs present
    prov_o          jsonb NOT NULL,
    -- LOAD-BEARING INVARIANT: an order cannot execute without 2-of-2 human dual-control sign-off.
    CHECK (executed_at IS NULL OR (sign1_at IS NOT NULL AND sign2_at IS NOT NULL))
);
ALTER TABLE synergy.tasking_order ENABLE ROW LEVEL SECURITY;
CREATE POLICY org_isolation ON synergy.tasking_order
    USING (org_id = current_setting('app.current_org_id')::uuid);

The second CHECK is the one that makes the demo land with a sovereign buyer: the database itself refuses to record an executed tasking order unless two named humans signed it. Restraint is structural, not a policy promise.

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§6 — Action-loop pseudocode (detect → enrich → triage → gate → task → execute → BDA → close)

Python
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def assess_eez_anomaly(candidate, requesting_org):
    # 1. DETECT — AIS-vs-SatAIS delta + spoof score (workflow-DAG-composable spoofing-detection Skill).
    if candidate.spoof_score < 0.7:
        return Disposition.WATCH                      # show on globe, no tasking

    # 2. ENRICH — SAR-scene Fellegi-Sunter link + MAHI USV edge EO/IR cue.
    candidate.sar_link_weight = fellegi_sunter_sar_to_track(candidate)   # W = 9.62 (auto-match > T_mu=4.0)
    candidate.usv_edge_cue    = mahi_alpha8.request_visual(candidate)    # edge corroboration, no crew
    if candidate.sar_link_weight is None and not candidate.usv_edge_cue:
        return Disposition.WATCH

    # 3. TRIAGE — Tier-3 proportionality; 5-persona Decision Room incl. a civil-society reviewer.
    P = proportionality(necessity=0.91, proport=0.94, lawful=0.97)        # P = mean(N,P,L) = 0.84
    gate = decision_room(
        proposal  = TipAndCue(candidate, asset="CASA-235-CM252", task="visual_identify", rules="no crew-ID"),
        personas  = [OP_TASKING, PROPORTIONALITY, CIVIL_SOCIETY('Foxglove'),
                     DEVILS_ADVOCATE, SATAIS_ANALYST],
        threshold = P_MIN_TIER3)

    # 4. GATE — the civil-security boundary is enforced here AND in the DB CHECK.
    if gate.requests_crew_id and candidate.crew_id_warrant_ref is None:
        return Disposition.DEFER_TO_TIER4              # CHECK forbids the write; warrant seat instantiates
    if not gate.passed:
        return Disposition.REFUSED(gate.rationale)     # logged with full transcript

    # 5. TASK + 6. EXECUTE — only after 2-of-2 dual-control sign-off (DB CHECK).
    order = TaskingOrder(candidate, task="visual_identify", asset="CASA-235-CM252",
                         lawful_basis="Maritime Safety Act 2005")
    require_dual_control(order, signers=["MIO-duty", "N2-OOW"])           # 2-of-2 or no execute
    write_back("naval_cad", requesting_org, order)                       # CoT 2.0 mission-tasking
    write_back("eurosur.alert", "atlantic_approaches",
               EurosurAlert(candidate, obs_level="inferred"))            # escalates on BDA

    # 7. BDA — C295 / MAHI USV on-station raises ObservationLevel.
    bda = await_bda(order)                                                # visual confirm -> 'confirmed'
    candidate.obs_level = bda.observation_level
    if bda.confirmed:
        register_prospective(candidate, trigger="shadow_fleet_AIS_spoof_pattern_Atlantic", alpha=0.4)

    # 8. CLOSE — Merkle-anchored audit envelope; sanctions lodge stays STAGED behind 'confirmed'.
    audit.append(candidate.id, boundary_state="tier3-civil-COP", merkle=True)
    return Disposition.EXECUTED

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§7 — nexus-workflows YAML DAG (the same loop, declarative, with a blocking human-gate node)

YAML
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# nexus-workflows DAG — eez-mda-anomaly-loop (NO cron anywhere; this IS the scheduler)
workflow: eez-mda-anomaly-loop
tenant: naval-service-moc
trigger:
  on_event: ais.anomaly.candidate            # emitted by the spoofing-detection Skill
nodes:
  - id: detect
    skill: ais-spoof-classifier
    out: { spoof_score: $.score }
    gate: { expr: "spoof_score >= 0.7", else: watch }

  - id: enrich_sar
    skill: fellegi-sunter-sar-to-track
    out: { sar_link_weight: $.W }            # 9.62 -> auto-match
  - id: enrich_usv
    skill: mahi-alpha8-visual-cue            # MAHI edge, no crew aboard
    out: { usv_edge_cue: $.cue }

  - id: triage_decision_room
    skill: decision-room-compose
    personas: [op_tasking, proportionality, civil_society_foxglove, devils_advocate, satais_analyst]
    out: { proportionality: \$.P, reco: \$.reco }

  - id: human_gate                            # <<< BLOCKING human-gate node >>>
    type: manual_approval
    blocking: true
    require: dual_control                     # 2-of-2
    approvers: [mio_duty, n2_oow]
    forbid_without: tier4_warrant             # crew-ID escalation is refused here
    on_reject: { goto: close_refused }

  - id: task_writeback
    after: human_gate
    skill: cad-writeback                      # Naval CAD (CoT 2.0) + eurosur.alert post
    lawful_basis: "Maritime Safety Act 2005 ; Defence Act 1954 s6"

  - id: bda
    after: task_writeback
    skill: bda-capture                        # C295 / USV on-station -> obs_level=confirmed
    out: { obs_level: $.level }

  - id: close
    after: bda
    skill: case-close
    audit: { merkle: true, anchor: sigstore-rekor }
    prospective_item: { trigger: shadow_fleet_AIS_spoof_pattern_Atlantic, alpha: 0.4 }

  - id: close_refused
    skill: case-close
    audit: { merkle: true, note: "refused at human_gate ; transcript retained" }

The human_gate node is blocking: true with require: dual_control — the DAG cannot proceed to task_writeback without two named approvals, and forbid_without: tier4_warrant mirrors the DB CHECK so the safety property is enforced in two independent places.

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§8 — UI/UX mockups (VERBATIM generated ASCII)

Figure 8.1 — globe_rmp (primary, CesiumJS-globe). The Naval Service MOC seat: ShellLayout + TopBar with PccPill (rightSlot) + RendererChip reading CesiumJS-globe + LeftSidebar + MapConsole rendering the top-down Irish-EEZ overview (EMODnet bathymetry, the 200nm boundary arc, the ASTRA-MARIA-7 self-report icon, the 41nm delta to the Sat-AIS position, the Sentinel-1 SAR footprint, the CELTIC-1 cable corridor, the MAHI Alpha-8 USV edge marker) + a right-docked ChatTerminal hosting the TRACKS rail and the five-persona Decision Room + HistoryRail + BottomStatusBar + ClassificationBanner. SVG twin: _build/figures/naval-service-mahi-mda/uc-globe_rmp.svg.

Figure — Recognised maritime picture (globe_rmp). Production-fidelity React surface (buildable); the faithful ASCII follows.

+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Irish EEZ Recognised Maritime Picture - Naval Service MOC + MAHI edge (CesiumJS-globe)           |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------+
|       . - '' - .       IRISH EEZ ~450,000 km2 (2nd-largest in EU) | TRACKS (sorted: spoof)       |
|    /     o ----._ \   self-report 51.4N 11.2W (broadcast AIS)     | ASTRA-MARIA-7  CMR flag      |
|   |  [!] AIS spoof |    EMODnet bathy -1840m :: IHO S-101 ENC     |   Sat-AIS vs self: 41nm      |
|   |  Sat-AIS 51.0N |   M/V ASTRA-MARIA-7 (CMR flag, AIS gaps)     |   SAR-confirm W=9.62>Tmu     |
|   |  41nm SW delta |    -> dark-vessel candidate (spoof 0.91)     |   loiter 6nm N CELTIC-1      |
|    \ S-1 SAR match /   Sentinel-1 IW @14:32Z confirms 51.0N 11.9W | MAHI Alpha-8 USV (edge)      |
|     \ '. CELTIC-1 .'/  loiters 6nm N of CELTIC-1 cable corridor   |   EO/IR cue, no crew aboard  |
|       ' - x__ - '      MAHI Alpha-8 USV edge: EO/IR visual cue    | 5 more dark-cands  T3        |
|   Camera {53.20N -14.50W alt 850km pitch -90} CesiumJS-globe      | 2,140 AIS contacts live      |
|   Concurrence: 41nm AIS-vs-SatAIS + SAR W=9.62 + cable-loiter     | [#] Sentinel-1 IW @14:32     |
|   -> ANOMALY 0.91 :: HUMAN GATE before any Naval/IRCG tasking     | [#] C295 tip-and-cue 4h      |
|                                                                   | [#] LE-WB-SHAW standby       |
|                                                                   | gate: vector + VHF query     |
|                                                                   |   NO crew-ID (civil COP)     |
+-------------------------------------------------------------------+------------------------------+
| EMODnet bathy + IHO S-101 + AIS(terr+SatAIS) + MAHI USV edge + Thales sonar :: NMSS centre-in-SW |
+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Figure 8.2 — map_ops (secondary, IRCG SAR coordination, MapConsole 2D). The IRCG virtual-JRCC seat: ShellLayout + TopBar/RendererChip (2D MapLibre) + a LeftSidebar LAYERS panel (with a gated Crew identity (Tier-4 warrant) toggle that is off-by-construction) + MapConsole showing the distress, the Met-Éireann drift cone, the IRCG-117 / RNLI / MAHI-USV assets, the HLS + ED-capacity overlay, and the golden-hour clock + Inspector + BottomStatusBar incident ticker.

Figure — Operational picture (map_ops · live MapLibre). Production-fidelity React surface (buildable); the faithful ASCII follows.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| IRCG SAR Coordination - virtual-JRCC operating picture (MapConsole 2D)                               |
+--------------------+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| LAYERS             | MAP  ========================================================================== |
| [x] AIS (terr+sat) | Galway Bay -> SW approaches  :: IRCG virtual-JRCC SAR slice                     |
| [x] MAHI USV edge  |   .--drift cone (Met Eireann ROMS, SSW 1.2kt)--.                                |
| [x] EMODnet bathy  |  /     [D] M/V CELTIC-VENTURE  distress 53.04N 9.66W      \                     |
| [x] S-101 ENC      | |   IRCG-117 helo (Shannon)  ETA 38m  hoist-capable        |                    |
| [x] Cable corridors| |   RNLI Aran ALB x2  ETA 22m / 41m                        |                    |
| [x] Drift model    | |   MAHI Alpha-8 USV  on-scene  EO/IR relay, no crew       |                    |
| [x] RNLI stations  |  \  HLS: Galway Airport  :: ED capacity: UHG 4 beds       /                     |
| [x] IRCG stations  |   '----- 6nm grid ----- golden-hour clock 00:47 -----'                          |
| [ ] Thales sonar   | Camera {lat 53.04 lon -9.66 alt 4.2km pitch -25}                                |
| [ ] Sentinel-1 SAR | Tasking write-back: IRCG MRCC + RNLI pager (human-gated)                        |
| [x] SAR assets     |                                                                                 |
| --- gated ---      |                                                                                 |
| [ ] Crew identity  |                                                                                 |
|   (Tier-4 warrant) |                                                                                 |
+--------------------+---------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| INCIDENTS: CELTIC-VENTURE distress 53.04N 9.66W | IRCG-117 38m | RNLI x2 | MAHI USV on-scene | gate  |
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

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§8b — Field-unit (Pixel) surfaces

The same scenario on the Pixel 10 Pro Fold field unit (Nexus Field app), tightly coordinated with the dashboard COP above — command pushes the task, the unit accepts + ACKs, shares position and reports back to the COP. Built on the same synergy.field_unit / field_task / field_report contract; see §9 and the cluster coordination composite.

Figure §8b.1 — Folded cover · tasking glance (ground_glance): the incoming IMMEDIATE task, ACCEPT + ACK, alert chips, bearing-to-objective.

Figure §8b.2 — Unfolded inner display · field COP: two-pane mini-map + task list + teammate roster + air/command coordination + PTT, with the Material-3 NavigationBar + Report FAB.

§9 — UI/UX flow (the literal click-path)

Click-path (globe_rmp → gate → task): MapConsole dark-vessel diamond (red) → click opens Inspector/TRACKS for ASTRA-MARIA-7 → press [Decision Room] → five persona bubbles populate in ChatTerminal (the Devil's-advocate "coverage gap" objection downgrades the reco; the Sat-AIS analyst restores it with 96% detect-confidence + the Sentinel-1 fix) → operator reads the civil-society red line (no crew-ID) → [/dual-control sign — MIO] ✓ then [/dual-control sign — N2 OOW] ✓ → [/execute → C295 tip-and-cue] → BdaCaptureBubble raises ObservationLevel on visual confirm → [Close + register ProspectiveItem].

[Globe RMP] --click diamond--> [TRACKS/Inspector] --[Decision Room]--> [5 persona bubbles]
     |                                                                        |
     |                                                            reco DOWN (devil) -> UP (analyst)
     v                                                                        v
[civil-society red line: NO crew-ID] --2-of-2 sign--> [HUMAN GATE] --pass--> [/execute C295]
                                                            |                        |
                                                       fail -> [Refuse + log]   [BDA visual confirm]
                                                                                     |
                                                                              [Close + ProspectiveItem]

For the IRCG SAR slice (map_ops): distress marker → [Assign assets] runs the Hungarian optimum (IRCG-117 + RNLI ×2 + MAHI USV) → duty coordinator dual-control sign → [/execute → IRCG MRCC + RNLI pager] → golden-hour clock tracks to BDA.

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§10 — Decision-Room transcript (the gated decision)

◀◀ EU-CONFIDENTIAL · TLP:AMBER · T3 ▶▶   [Nexus-Synergy rc10 · tactical]  MapConsole=CesiumJS-globe
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┬──────────────────────────────────────┐
│ MapConsole — Irish EEZ ~450,000 km²                        │ Nexus Chat — Decision Room  [▢][▭][✕]│
│ ▣ 2,140 AIS contacts live · 6 dark candidates ◆T3          │ ⊟ Op-tasking [L3 Mistral-Large]      │
│ ▣ ASTRA-MARIA-7  MMSI 308194632 (CMR)                      │  Reco: C295 tip-and-cue next pass +  │
│   Sat-AIS contradicts self-report by 41nm                  │  visual-identify 4h; register shadow-│
│ ▣ Sentinel-1 IW @14:32:18Z confirms a hull 51.0N 11.9W     │  fleet ProspectiveItem. NO crew-ID.  │
│ ▣ MAHI Alpha-8 USV on-scene: EO/IR cue, no crew aboard     │ ⊟ Proportionality [L3] P=0.84        │
│ ▣ loiters 6nm N of CELTIC-1 cable corridor                 │  N0.91 P0.94 L0.97 → mean 0.84.      │
│                                                            │  Tier-3 vessel-tracking proportionate│
│                                                            │  NO individual targeted. [Direct]    │
│                                                            │ ⊟ Civil-society (Foxglove flavour)   │
│                                                            │  Sat-AIS at Tier-3 is fine. RED LINE:│
│                                                            │  do NOT resolve crew identity / link │
│                                                            │  to persons without a Tier-4 warrant │
│                                                            │  if the vessel makes an Irish port   │
│                                                            │  call. Vessel telemetry ≠ people.    │
│                                                            │ ⊟ Devil's advocate [L3]              │
│                                                            │  A 41nm AIS-vs-SatAIS delta is ALSO  │
│                                                            │  consistent with a Sat-AIS coverage  │
│                                                            │  gap. Do not advance shadow-fleet    │
│                                                            │  attribution on a gap.               │
│                                                            │  ⮑ RECO DOWNGRADED → "monitor only"  │
│                                                            │ ⊟ Sat-AIS analyst [L3 EuroLLM]       │
│                                                            │  Gap REJECTED: Sat-AIS-3 pass @14:30Z│
│                                                            │  covered this cell at 96% detect-conf│
│                                                            │  + Sentinel-1 IW puts a hull at      │
│                                                            │  51.0N 11.9W ±0.4nm + MAHI USV EO/IR │
│                                                            │  cue. THREE sources agree. [Direct]  │
│                                                            │  ⮑ RECO RESTORED → C295 APPROVED     │
│                                                            │ ─────────────────────────────────── │
│                                                            │ [/dual-control sign — MIO duty]  ✓   │
│                                                            │ [/dual-control sign — N2 OOW]    ✓   │
│                                                            │ GATE: ACCEPT  P=0.84 ≥ P_min · 2-of-2│
│                                                            │ [/execute → C295 visual-identify]    │
│                                                            │ [/execute → EUROSUR alert post]      │
├──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────────────┤
│ HistoryRail: [● 14:32 6 dark-cands][ASTRA spoof 0.91][reco ↓ devil / ↑ analyst][MAHI USV cue]    │
│ BottomStatusBar: sync✓ · NORMAL · Galileo-OS · OneWeb (sovereign) · L3 Mistral-Large             │
◀◀ EU-CONFIDENTIAL · TLP:AMBER · T3 ▶▶

The dissent did real work. The Devil's-advocate persona downgraded the reco to "monitor only" on a coverage-gap steel-man; the Sat-AIS analyst rejected the gap with three corroborants (96% detect-confidence, the Sentinel-1 IW fix, and the MAHI USV EO/IR cue) and restored the C295 tasking. The civil-society (Foxglove-flavour) reviewer holds a hard red line — no crew-identity resolution without a Tier-4 warrant — which the DB CHECK enforces so it cannot be overridden by an operator click. The gate verdict (ACCEPT, P=0.84, 2-of-2) and the ↓↑ swing are logged in HistoryRail for replay.

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§11 — Write-back + BDA + PROV-O chain + deltas-only regulatory traceback

Write-back (three targets, each with named lawful basis + dual-control gate):

1. Naval Service CAD — C295/CASA-235 tasking via CoT 2.0 mission-tasking extension; lawful basis = Defence Act 1954 §6 + Maritime Safety Act 2005.
2. eurosur.alert — European Border Surveillance alert post in CISE message format; lawful basis = Regulation (EU) 1052/2013 (EUROSUR). ObservationLevel inferred → escalates on BDA.
3. sanctions.cfsp.lodge — STAGED behind BDA-confirm; lawful basis = SI implementing CFSP measures; bilateral with the DFA Sanctions Unit. It does not fire on the inferred attribution.

BDA (loop close). C295 on-station + MAHI USV EO/IR confirm a vessel matching the SAR-estimated dimensions + a flag-of-convenience pattern; the BdaCaptureBubble raises ObservationLevel inferred → confirmed, which unlocks the staged sanctions lodgement. ProspectiveItem registered: shadow-fleet-AIS-spoof-pattern-Atlantic (α=0.4; cross-tenant opt-in recorded as a PROV-O data-sharing edge).

PROV-O attribution chain (Turtle-style):

Plain Text
22 lines
Copy
:AisTrack-308194632   a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :AisMultiplexerIngest .
:SatAisCross          a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :SatAisCorrelator ; prov:used :CopernicusEmsaFeed .
:Sentinel1Match       a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :SarSceneMatch ; prov:used :Sentinel1IwScene-143218Z .
:UsvEdgeCue           a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :MahiAlpha8Perception .   # edge, no crew
:SpoofScore-0.91      a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :AisSpoofClassifier-v1.2 ;
                      prov:used :AisTrack-308194632, :SatAisCross, :Sentinel1Match .
:SarLink-W9.62        a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :FellegiSunterLinker ;
                      prov:used :Sentinel1Match, :AisTrack-308194632 .
:DecisionRoom-B01     a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :DecisionRoomCompose ;
                      prov:used :SpoofScore-0.91, :SarLink-W9.62, :UsvEdgeCue ;
                      prov:wasAttributedTo :OpTasking, :Proportionality, :CivilSociety,
                                           :DevilsAdvocate, :SatAisAnalyst .
:RecoSwing-down-up    a prov:Entity ; prov:wasDerivedFrom :DevilsAdvocate, :SatAisAnalyst .
:DualControl-B01      a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :DualControlGate ;
                      prov:wasAttributedTo :MIO-duty, :N2-OOW .
:C295Tasking          a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :CADWriteBack ;
                      prov:wasDerivedFrom :DecisionRoom-B01, :DualControl-B01 .
:BDA-B01              a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :C295VisualConfirm ; prov:used :C295Tasking .
:SanctionsLodge-B01   a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :CfspLodgeAdapter ;
                      prov:wasDerivedFrom :BDA-B01 .          # staged behind 'confirmed'
:CaseClose-B01        a prov:Entity ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :CaseCloseActivity ;
                      prov:used :BDA-B01, :SanctionsLodge-B01 .

Chain unbroken: finding → enrich (Sat-AIS + SAR + MAHI USV) → score → ER-link → 5-persona triage (+ reco-swing) → dual-control signers → execute (CAD + EUROSUR) → BDA → staged sanctions lodge → close. Every node is replayable.

Regulatory traceback (deltas only — what differs from the §4.0 defaults):

• AI Act Arts 6 + 27 (high-risk + FRIA) engaged because the use is law-enforcement-adjacent maritime surveillance; Art 5 prohibited practices (applicable 2 February 2025) are not triggered — no biometric/predictive/social-scoring path exists.
• LED (Dir (EU) 2016/680) Art 8 — N/A: the Naval Service is lead (not An Garda Síochána) and no identified-crew personal data is processed; the Foxglove red line + the DB CHECK keep it N/A.
• EUROSUR (Reg (EU) 1052/2013) governs the alert-post write-back; CFSP (Council Decision 2014/512/CFSP + successors) governs the staged sanctions lodge.
• NIS2 (Dir (EU) 2022/2555) engaged on the defensive side because the contact loiters near a designated cable corridor — critical-infrastructure protection, never offensive action.

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§12 — Buyer & stakeholders

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§13 — Competition / incumbency + comparator

• No entrenched sovereign-COP incumbent in Ireland. The recognised maritime picture is explicitly to-be-built — there is no Palantir-Maritime / big-SI lock-in to displace today. Favourable. [verified — gov.ie NMSS; RTÉ 28 Feb 2026]
• Sensor + SI gravity is the real risk. Thales (won the €60m sonar) and Airbus (C295) are deep in the Irish maritime stack and could push their own fusion/C2 software downward; an SI could bundle a fusion layer into a hardware framework and lock us out. [verified — Irish Times 24 Jan 2026 "one country and company gain the most"]
• Sea-Scan / Trinity-ADAPT, MAHI, others = feeds, not foes. Position at the fusion altitude; a crowded sensor field increases the need for a neutral fusion layer.
• Comparator: Palantir MetaConstellation / Maven Smart System for MDA. Publicly documented satellite-tasking + fusion, but US-foundation-model in the loop and no published RMP-spoofing-detection-with-civil-society-dissent composition. Our wins: sovereign-EU LLMs throughout (Mistral-Large + EuroLLM, no US model), sovereign SatCom (OneWeb selected over Starlink by policy), a customer-editable ontology, a genuine closed action loop, and the civil-society red line enforced in the database. Honest loss: Sentinel-1 revisit (~2-12h) is a hard tip-and-cue floor no platform fixes, and ours doesn't either; sub-hour revisit needs commercial SAR tasking, which re-opens a sovereignty question we deliberately decline. [verified comparator existence; capability claims AS-PUBLISHED]

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§14 — Readiness (honest, pre-pilot)

• Reuse (real): the architecture a sovereign buyer needs to hear is genuinely built as a thesis — classification-aware AI Provider Router, FRIA + provenance ledger + transparency portal, the 5-persona Decision Room, the editable ontology, the triple-renderer map (CesiumJS-globe for EEZ scale). The W-12 RMP pattern (AIS-multiplexer + Sat-AIS cross-check) is AS-IMPLEMENTED at the ingest level.
• Real gaps:
  • The MAHI data-contract spike is unbuilt — the MAHI Sense open-API / track schema / ROC bus needs a technical session and a scoped integration before any joint pitch is credible.
  • Turning the gallery into a fielded, data-fed maritime COP (live MAHI/AIS/sonar/satellite feeds, classification partitioning, audit ledger) is real engineering work ahead.
  • The workflow-DAG-composable spoofing-detection Skill is AS-DESIGNED, not fielded; the Fellegi-Sunter SAR-to-track linker is specified, not deployed.
  • No NS/RTI named contact is confirmed; the centre pilot-budget owner is unknown.
• Honest scoping rule: a pilot must start narrow (one cable corridor watch, or the IRCG SAR-COP) — not "the whole national centre."

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§15 — ENGAGEMENT PLAYBOOK (first-contact → free discovery → demo → pilot → LOI → contract)

Stage 0 — Verify (pre-engagement). Trigger: before any intro is requested. Owner: Don. Activity: confirm MAHI bundle terms (edge scope, open-API/data-contract reality, any Ultranav exclusivity) via Don↔Pieter-Jan; confirm Patrick's specific NS/RTI contact; confirm whether IRCG (Transport) is the faster first pilot. Exit: MAHI willing to act as contracting prime + a named NS/RTI or IRCG target. Deliverable: a one-line bundle-terms memo + a named target.

Stage 1 — First contact (warm intro). Trigger: Stage 0 done. Owner: Patrick (NS/RTI via DEC) + Don (MAHI founder-to-founder). Activity: send the two warm-intro emails below. Exit: a discovery call booked. Deliverable: calendar invite with the discovery agenda attached.

Warm-intro email — to Patrick (adapted from outreach-drafts §1): Subject: One named intro to turn the maritime-COP thesis into a first MOU Patrick — you said the LOI is the unlock, so here is the single named ask that matters most for the maritime play: an introduction to the Defence Forces RTI Unit (via the DEC) — ideally whoever is mapping the NMSS "national maritime security centre" — so I can show, on Ireland's own EEZ, a sovereign recognised-maritime-picture that fuses the sensors the State is already buying (the €60m sonar, the C295, Sea-Scan) into one human-gated, fully-audited picture. I'm walking in with MAHI (Belgian uncrewed-edge partner, DSTL/TF59 references), so this is an edge+brain team, not slideware. Free discovery, no cost to them, explicitly civil-security MDA — not warfighting. Happy to walk you through the demo first so you're comfortable putting your name to it.

Warm-intro email — to Pieter-Jan Note (MAHI) (adapted from outreach-drafts §2): Subject: Edge + sovereign brain — the Irish NMSS window Pieter-Jan — the Irish timing is unusually good: the first-ever NMSS (Feb 2026) commits to a national maritime security centre + undersea-cable protection, and the Naval Service can't crew its EEZ. Your MAHI Sense edge feeds detect/sense; we add enrich → triage → human-gate → task → assess → close across a fleet, writing tasking back through your open API. Two asks: (1) a technical session on the MAHI Sense API / track schema to scope the data contract; (2) an honest conversation about MAHI acting as the contracting vehicle for a first Irish discovery/pilot — candidly, that clears a legal gate on my side and we both win.

Stage 2 — Free discovery (60 min, no commitment). Trigger: call booked. Owner: Don (+ MAHI optional). Activity: run the discovery agenda — frame & permission (0:00-0:05) → current operating picture / surface the pain (0:05-0:20) → governance, lawful basis, sovereignty (0:20-0:35) → stakeholders, budget, timing (0:35-0:45) → map their loop onto our 8-stage action loop (0:45-0:55) → close & earn the demo (0:55-1:00). No slides, no money ask. Exit: named sponsor agrees there is a problem worth solving + asks for the demo. Deliverable: same-day discovery write-up (sponsor, top-3 pains in their words, lawful basis/classification, action-loop gap, Declined-List PASS, funding vehicle hinted, next step + date).

Stage 3 — Scoped demo (their loop, our platform). Trigger: discovery exit met. Owner: Nexus Synergy + MAHI. Activity: replay their EEZ anomaly + cable-corridor watch + human-gated tasking on the CesiumJS-globe RMP, with the MAHI edge feed mocked or live; lead with the sovereignty differentiators that matched their qualification answers (AI Provider Router, FRIA/provenance, the 5-persona Decision Room with the civil-society reviewer seated inside the decision, claim-level epistemic transparency, the published Declined List). Exit: "could we try this on a narrow, real slice?" Deliverable: the one-page pilot proposal (Stage 4).

Stage 4 — Pilot (time-boxed, grant-funded). Trigger: demo exit ask. Owner: Joint. Activity: run the narrow pilot (one cable corridor OR IRCG SAR-COP). Exit: success criteria met or credibly trending. Deliverable: the filled 1-page pilot proposal below.

1-page pilot proposal — filled for THIS buyer:

1. Title & sponsor: Irish EEZ Cable-Corridor Watch — sovereign MDA fusion pilot. Sponsor: [NS/RTI or IRCG — TBD]; budget owner: [TBD].
2. The problem (their words): "We have sensors arriving and a 450,000 km² EEZ we can't patrol; we don't have one shared picture, and we reconstruct cable incidents after the fact."
3. The one thing we'll prove: We can fuse AIS + Sat-AIS + a Sentinel-1 SAR scene (+ a mocked/live MAHI USV cue) into one human-gated cable-corridor picture and cut time-to-detect-anomaly from X to Y. (X/Y = baseline TBD, measured in week 1.)
4. Scope IN/OUT: IN — one cable corridor (e.g. CELTIC approaches), globe_rmp + Decision Room + dual-control gate. OUT — the whole national centre, any crew-identity resolution, any Declined-List capability (explicitly excluded).
5. Data & lawful basis: AIS (open) + Sat-AIS (Copernicus/EMSA) + Sentinel-1 (open) + mocked MAHI feed; classification EU-RESTRICTED; EU-hosted; lawful basis Maritime Safety Act 2005 / Defence Act 1954 §6.
6. Success criteria: 2-4 sponsor-agreed metrics (time-to-detect; false-alarm rate; auditability — every decision replayable). Baselines TBD week 1.
7. Timeline: 6-12 weeks, mid-point checkpoint.
8. Commercials: €0 to the institution if grant-funded (DRTIO next cycle / EUDIS); indicative production band Tier-1 €120-240k → Tier-3 €2.4-4.8m only if asked.
9. Roles: Nexus Synergy (COP) + MAHI (edge) + sponsor (data + success criteria).
10. After: an LOI if criteria are met.
11. Funding vehicle: Research-Ireland Defence Innovation Challenge (next MDA-fusion-themed cycle) / EUDIS-EDF 2026 maritime track.

Stage 5 — LOI (the milestone — triggers Patrick's check). Trigger: pilot success criteria met. Owner: Buyer + Patrick. Activity: sign a non-binding LOI/MOU (founder signs in own name pre-incorporation, s.45 ratification; solicitor review required). Exit: signed LOI naming a sponsor + next step. Deliverable: LOI per checklist — parties; statement of intent; scope; success criteria referenced; named sponsor; indicative timeline; indicative commercials ("to be scoped under [vehicle]"); conditions; binding/non-binding stated; confidentiality; Irish governing law; Declined-List affirmation; signatures; solicitor review confirmed.

Stage 6 — Signed contract (paid pilot → framework). Trigger: LOI + a partner vehicle able to sign (MAHI prime / incorporated NewCo on Stamp 4). Owner: MAHI/NewCo + buyer procurement. Activity: convert to a paid pilot; line up the NMSS framework + EDF consortium for scale. Exit: a signed paid engagement. Deliverable: executed contract via the partner vehicle.

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§16 — PM / timeline

Stage \ Month     M1   M2   M3   M4   M5   M6   M7   M8   M9   M10  M11  M12
0 Verify(MAHI)    ####
1 First contact     ####
2 Free discovery       ####
3 Scoped demo            #####
4 Pilot (grant)              ##########
5 LOI                                  ####            <-- Patrick-check trigger
6 Paid pilot/contract                       ###############  (needs Stamp-1G/partner-vehicle gate)
  CRITICAL PATH:   [MAHI prime vehicle confirmed] ==========================> [PAID pilot signable]

Milestones: M1 MAHI bundle terms + named target · M2 discovery booked · M3 discovery write-up + demo agreed · M4-M5 demo delivered · M6-M9 pilot runs (grant-funded, €0 to buyer) · ~M9 LOI signed (Patrick check) · M10-M12 paid pilot via partner vehicle.

Critical path: the Stamp-1G / partner-vehicle gate is critical for a PAID pilot. Free discovery, demo and a grant-funded pilot can proceed without it; no founder-signed paid contract is possible until either MAHI is the contracting prime (V→0.75) or the founder reaches Stamp 4 and incorporates (V→1.0). t_resolve ≈ 9 months.

RACI:

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§17 — Funding / procurement vehicle

Sequencing: civil/innovation pilot (IRCG SAR-COP or a DRTIO MDA-fusion pilot) → Naval Service paid pilot → NMSS framework + EDF consortium scale-up. Note: Ireland is excluded from NATO DIANA (non-NATO) — use EU vehicles only. [verified]

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§18 — TWO-STAGE FORMULA SCORECARD

Every factor cell is [PRIOR] with a dated one-line rationale (2026-06-05). Stage-1 weights {.22,.22,.18,.14,.10,.08,.06}; Stage-2 weights {.24,.22,.18,.16,.12,.08}.

Stage-1 — P(LOI) (vector {mandate_pull, access_warmth, demonstrability, decline_safety, white_space, cycle_speed, pillar_fit}):

S1 = 3.14 → P_LOI = 0.55 / (1 + exp(−1.15·(3.14 − 2.6))) = 35.8% [PRIOR]. Score100 = S1 · 20 = 62.8.

Reconciliation: board_anchor Score100 = 66.4 → 62.8 is within ~4 pts (acceptable). The raw model P_LOI (35.8%) runs above the board's to-LOI 18-30% band; that band is the gov-slow-tempered figure (G2G procurement, no named contact yet), so the reportable to-LOI = 18-30% stands as the calibrated value and the raw 35.8% is shown for transparency, not as the forecast.

Stage-2 — P(Contract | LOI) (vector {contractability, funding_to_pay, procurement_clarity, incumbency_displacement, time_to_value, reference_leverage}):

S2 = 2.62 → P_raw = 0.70 / (1 + exp(−1.1·(2.62 − 2.8))) = 31.5% [PRIOR].

Legal gate G = V·T, with T = min(1, max(0, (30 − 9)/30)) = 0.70 (t_resolve ≈ 9 mo):

Reconciliation to board to-buy 21-29%: the board's to-purchase band is the V≈0.75 (MAHI prime) regime — P(Contract|LOI) ≈ 16.6% at V=0.75 is the decisive lever; the board figure folds in μ_strategic/expansion upside (very-high value, national-centre + EDF scale). MAHI's value is that it lifts the gate (V 0.10→0.75), not Stage 1 — exactly worked-example (D). Today, solo, the honest joint number is ~0.8%.

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§19 — Commercial

Cost advantage: open-source substrate + sovereign HPC (EuroHPC LUMI / CASPIr-ICHEC) + a shared conformity file + no forward-deployed-engineer dependency (declarative composition). Indicative production pricing quoted only if asked; pilots lead with the grant route so the buyer isn't blocked on a procurement they can't yet run.

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§20 — Legal blockers

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§21 — Warm-intro contact + the specific ask

• Primary (founder-to-founder): Pieter-Jan Note (CEO, MAHI), via Don's direct relationship. The ask: a technical session on the MAHI Sense open-API / track schema to scope the data contract, and an honest conversation about MAHI acting as the contracting prime for a first Irish discovery/pilot (this lifts the legal gate V 0.10→0.75 — the single highest-leverage move in this package). [verified person; email not public]
• Bridge (institutional): Patrick Walsh (CEO, Dogpatch Labs), patrick@dogpatchlabs.com. The ask: one named introduction to the Defence Forces RTI Unit (via the DEC) — ideally whoever is mapping the NMSS national maritime security centre — for a free, civil-security MDA discovery session (explicitly not warfighting). [verified]
• Insider to map (do not cold-contact): Cdr Cathal Power (DF Liaison, Sea-Scan) — a known MDA-innovation insider; map, don't assume a relationship. [verified name]

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§22 — Open questions + consolidated Sources

Open questions (do not assert until resolved):

1. Named buyer contact — exactly who in NS/RTI owns the centre pilot budget, and can Patrick reach them? [TBD]
2. Pilot-budget existence — is there a direct innovation/pilot budget short of the full NMSS framework, or must everything route through a grant/tender? [TBD]
3. MAHI bundle terms — edge scope, open-API reality, any Ultranav exclusivity. [unverified]
4. Next Defence Innovation Challenge cycle — when, and is a fusion/decision-layer topic plausible vs the awarded sensor topics? [TBD]
5. EDF consortium — can Ireland + Belgium/MAHI + a third Member State be assembled before the 29 Sep 2026 close? [TBD]
6. Sovereignty bar — what classification/data-residency/audit requirements will the Defence Forces impose, and does our router + FRIA/provenance stack meet them as-built? [TBD]
7. Civil-vs-defence split — is IRCG (Transport, SAR) a faster, cleaner first pilot than the Naval Service (Defence)? Likely yes — confirm. [TBD]

Sources (web-verified 2026-06-04/05):

• NMSS 2026-2030 + national maritime security centre: gov.ie; RTÉ 25 Feb 2026; Naval Today 26 Feb 2026; RTÉ analysis 28 Feb 2026
• Naval Service capability/manpower: Irish Times 11 Jan 2025; Irish Examiner (strength)
• Sub-sea cables / EEZ threat: CSIS Ireland subsea case study; RTÉ Brainstorm 30 Jul 2025; Irish Times 14 Apr 2025 (intel network); Irish Times 5 Dec 2025 (cable research programme)
• €60m Thales sonar + "one company gains": Irish Times 15 Jun 2025; Irish Times 24 Jan 2026
• Sea-Scan (MSA winner, Cdr Cathal Power, DAS+SoP): TCD Feb 2026; Engineers Ireland
• IRCG Bristow SAR aviation: RTÉ 21 Aug 2025
• AI to cover DF shortfalls: Irish Times 16 May 2026
• EDF/EUDIS 2026 maritime + Ireland eligibility: EDF Work Programme 2026 (EC); Defence Forces European Funding page
• MAHI edge: mahi.be
• Internal grounding: source card 03-gtm/target-packages/maritime-naval-service.md; formula 03-gtm/strategy-paper/formula-worked-examples.md (worked example D); discovery-playbook.md; outreach-drafts.md; legal-blockers-register.md; contact-register.md.

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